Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Watching BPI

One of my personal favorite market breadth indicators is the bullish percentage index (BPI). It is a calculation that is applied to indexes (a group of stocks) rather than an individual stock. The bullish percentage index (BPI) is calculated by taking the total number of issues in an index that are generating buy signals on point & figure charts and dividing it by the total number of stocks in that particular index. Analyst John Murphy discusses the interpretation of the indicator in his book The Visual Investor: How To Spot Market Trends. Murphy's rules of interpretation for using the bullish percent index are simplistic; when the BPI is above 70%, the market is overbought, and conversely, when the indicator is below 30%, the market is oversold.

The BPI works well when plotted as a line with the five-period moving average (MA) or 10-period MA alongside it. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) can also be used. In this example we will use the S&P 500 as our underlying index beside an EMA.

The BPI of the Standard & Poor's 500 ($BPSPX) is plotted above as a line with the five-day EMA placed with it. The strategy here is simple: Sell the market when the BPI crosses below the moving average, and buy when it crosses above the respective moving average. When the BPI crosses above or below the five-day EMA, it triggers the signal to buy or sell.


(From Ron Walker's public list)

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