excellent interview with Doug Casey
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-18/doug-casey-we-are-living-middle-biggest-bubble-history
"the USD is just an unsecured liability of a bankrupt government")
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-18/doug-casey-we-are-living-middle-biggest-bubble-history
"the USD is just an unsecured liability of a bankrupt government")
Shorted Japan for the first time in my life on FRIDAY.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view of -10% currency decline, 2% inflation target by summer, and ZERO for interest rates?
Who will fund their 200%+ debt to GDP when you are guaranteed a loss of investment value on the currency translation? They may make Greece situation look quite infantile.
-TigerPack
Hi TP ,hope you are well. Kyle Bass is a big proponent of an imminent fiscal crisis in Japan and I have to say it looks pretty grim.The "short yen" trade looks a real winner to me,equities less clear because when I was active in japan the big refrain was that Japan needs inflation in order for pricicng power to return but obviously that could get out of hand very quickly.Im not so in touch with japan as i used to be but all the anecdotal evidence suggests Japan continuing to lose ground to Korea and other asian countries especially in electronics
ReplyDeleteI shorted EWJ (ETF 1x long JAPAN)
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=EWJ+Basic+Tech.+Analysis&t=2y
The Nikkei rise is not quite as good, when you take your money out of the country with the collapsing currency.
Yes, a small rise in interest rates (now seemingly guarnateed into the summer) will devastate government finances and refinancing needs.
-TP