Wednesday, 7 August 2013


 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/fed-balance-sheet-vs-stock-market-will.html

"Frankly, I view the present course of monetary policy as reckless - not because it threatens inflation (which I don't think it will for several years), but because it diverts scarce capital away from productive investment and toward speculative activities; because it fails to act on any economic constraint that is actually binding here, so has little hope of providing the economic "support" that it purports to offer; because decades of historical evidence provide no basis to expect a material "wealth effect" from stock values to the economy; because the policy lowers hurdle rates and encourages borrowing for unproductive purposes - including stock buybacks at record highs (and there is no evidence that buybacks are a good indication of value); because it punishes the elderly on fixed incomes; because it perpetuates a bubble-bust cycle created by Fed intervention, which is not the medicine but the very poison itself; and because moving to the left on the liquidity preference curve will likely be as painful as moving to the right has been pleasant. Meanwhile, we’ll continue along a studied, disciplined course over the remainder of this market cycle, considering a broad ensemble of evidence that has been validated across market cycles throughout history. Our views will change as that evidence does."

1 comment:

  1. I see a lot of EW geniuses making outrageous claims on the future of the market based on no-volume BOT-wander. GL WD. I continue to believe the top is "effectively in" as I said before and whether it's 1709 or 1715 doesn't matter. Nice bounce in Uvee last days, my largest holding. Wile

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