This is intended to be a forum for me to post chart ideas and hopefully receive feedback and stimulate discussion.It is not intended to constitute investment advice.
The measured move concept is the underlying basis of the chart with the mirrored curves being but one way to illustrate an equidistant measured move. The actual nominal length of travel from a price and time standpoint for the rallies from 2009 lows to 2011 highs and 2011 lows to 2013 highs is very close to equal. The Very Long Term Channeling overshoot to the downside in 2009 is approximately the same as the recent 2013 overshoot to the upside. Price is meeting measured move expectations while at the same time running directly into the Primary Channel upper boundary, the daily momentum and trend indicators are currently bearish, and weekly momentum has rolled over bearish as well (neither seen on this chart). And this is not to forget that all this is happening at historic extreme deviations from the mean as seen in various metrics that we've talked about extensively over recent months.
That would be my most succinct bear case arguing against a market trend accelerating to the upside. ;-)
If I wasn't a permabear, I'd just say that shows a market trend that is accelerating to the upside.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens if we're 1800/1900s end year?
The measured move concept is the underlying basis of the chart with the mirrored curves being but one way to illustrate an equidistant measured move. The actual nominal length of travel from a price and time standpoint for the rallies from 2009 lows to 2011 highs and 2011 lows to 2013 highs is very close to equal. The Very Long Term Channeling overshoot to the downside in 2009 is approximately the same as the recent 2013 overshoot to the upside. Price is meeting measured move expectations while at the same time running directly into the Primary Channel upper boundary, the daily momentum and trend indicators are currently bearish, and weekly momentum has rolled over bearish as well (neither seen on this chart). And this is not to forget that all this is happening at historic extreme deviations from the mean as seen in various metrics that we've talked about extensively over recent months.
DeleteThat would be my most succinct bear case arguing against a market trend accelerating to the upside. ;-)