http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-19/it-may-already-be-too-late-for-europe-s-economy
"The problem is that the ECB has shown, again and again, that it is
temperamentally and institutionally timid. These more radical proposals
would divide its policy-making board and court political controversy, to
put it mildly. They may also be illegal: The single-currency treaty
forbids "monetary financing" of governments, and last week's guidance
from the EU Court of Justice's advocate general was that sovereign debt
purchases were sometimes permissible
but subject to conditions. The guidance seemed to rule out coordinated
monetary and fiscal expansion (through primary-market bond purchases);
it voiced reservations about the bank's retaining bonds to maturity
(imposing a limit on the duration of QE).
Legal or not, helicopter money would be a frontal repudiation of the
monetary conservatism that Germany's government and others have sought
to impose on the bank. The same goes for anything that looked like
raising the ECB's inflation target."
"The problem is that the ECB has shown, again and again, that it is
temperamentally and institutionally timid. These more radical proposals
would divide its policy-making board and court political controversy, to
put it mildly. They may also be illegal: The single-currency treaty
forbids "monetary financing" of governments, and last week's guidance
from the EU Court of Justice's advocate general was that sovereign debt
purchases were sometimes permissible
but subject to conditions. The guidance seemed to rule out coordinated
monetary and fiscal expansion (through primary-market bond purchases);
it voiced reservations about the bank's retaining bonds to maturity
(imposing a limit on the duration of QE).
Legal or not, helicopter money would be a frontal repudiation of the
monetary conservatism that Germany's government and others have sought
to impose on the bank. The same goes for anything that looked like
raising the ECB's inflation target."
interesting comment from Oneofdaworst,at FAM's blog
ReplyDeletedon't think they will buy a "humongous" amount of bonds because there's germany...
anyways ,people do not understand that QE is europe will be much much less effective than in the us for several reasons
1.rates are already close to 0
2 companies finance themselves outside the markets contrary to the us
3 .the sovereign debt market is not big enough
4 and most importantly,it's the national central banks that will share the risks of holding the sovereign debt ,not all ECB therefore making it much more fragile
Conclusion,you might see a spike if they do a massive QE but it will be a big sell in a matter of weeks with no more net to protect the downside..
i think a massive short opportunity lies ahead ..there's no more QE crap anticipated after that for a while and markets will be left on their own....untill the fed panics again but we'll have a 20% correction in between..
jmho
Today's tune ... needs a bit more crescent wrench. 1080p
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Ao-iNPPUc
Unreal tech. I'll have to shave my arm.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/embed/9J7GpVQCfms
Undiscovered planets ?
ReplyDeletehttp://video.foxnews.com/v/4000235156001/are-more-planets-hiding-in-our-solar-system/?intcmp=obnetwork#sp=show-clips
Your buddy is wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe ECB is expanding their balance sheet by well over $3 Trillion to at least Sept of 2016.
UFO conference starts tomorrow. Can't make it, foo.
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Today's tune:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icWkyedURkM