Monday, 31 May 2010
On the Dax post I showed a chart with a possible 1,2 i,ii Elliott wave count.This can also be applied to other indexes like the S&P ,though with the markets closed today the 13th trading day will come in 1 day later.Fib counts do not have to be exact and a valid turn could come on 12 or 14 days.The count implies a iii of 3 down,which would be a sharp fall as 3rd waves are the most dynamic,so a 3rd wave of 2 degrees would be particularly strong.This is not a forecast but is something to consider if the market turns on this timeframe.
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Sunday, 23 May 2010
Saturday, 22 May 2010
T?his is a possible but purely speculative time cycle roadmap.A 3 month cycle is a "normal" cycle in Gann analysis,being 1/4 of a year.Such a scenario would also give us a nice 1 year low to low cycle.The arrows are pointing to time targets not price targets.The price range for the cycle is 350,implying we might bottom in 350 days rather than 360,or that price could bottom 10 points below the July 09 low,making it a 360 point range.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
I have put 5,10 and 20 point per day Gann lines on the chart.Does not look to have much room to move to the upside.5400 (Gann 15x360) looks to be good resistance.As mentioned Ftse is ahead of other markets in the declining phase,Thursday's high being 20 days from the top.
Sunday, 16 May 2010
Saturday, 15 May 2010
One possible outcome is we churn beneath the 200 week moving average for a few more weeks or months.Bill McLaren thinks we will see choppy distribution period and points out the high came in at the mid-point of a 5 year cycle,suggesting a final low in 30 months time
The Ftse seems to have been a good lead indicator for some other matkets (although some European markets have been even weaker).The moving average trio refers to the 10,20 and 50 day ema's.Ron Walker(thechartpatterntrader.com) uses these to generate must buy and must sell signals on crosses.You will never miss a major move with this strategy but you will be whipsawed in rangebound markets.I suspect we may bounce from the 5200 support area and trade sideways before the next leg down.Mining stocks and capital gains tax fears are 2 negatives for FTSE.
Break of 3 fanlines,and 21ema crossed below 34 ema (see post of 12/05) strongly suggest the trend has changed.We now have a lower high on the charts,Gann's "safest place to sell".Definitely a time for caution and capital preservation given the state of the long-term charts and the disturbing parallels with the 1930s (Creditanstalt/Sovereign debt parallel)