Lots of developing top patterns,,,Ftse still seems to be giving one of the clearest leads and has a clear head and shoulder top pattern in place .S&P still needs to break 1040,but it seems like only a matter of time.
Gold has remained strong and is still in a genuine long term secular bull market,in my view.Nevertheless the short-term picture is cloudy and I am slightly wary of this risng wedge pattern accompanied by negative divergence
I checked out this chart because Motley Fool are recommending it following price weakness.From a technical point of view this chart has nothing to recommend it.The triple top pattern occurring beneath the 50% retracement is an indication of a weak chart and there is a death cross of the 10 and 40 week moving averages.
The fast selloff we were expecting from the triple top setup did not materialize.Instead we had 6 weeks of sideways action,then an upward break resulting in a bearish inverted hammer (or gravestone doji ?) this week,on news of the currency realignment.So we now have the potential to move lower from this 4th top.The whole pattern could conceivably be a 4th wave,but this does not seem a high probability count.
Bulls will be focussing on the potential 1,2,3 low pattern which I have marked with arrows.My perspective is that we are in the early stages of a bear trend,having broken below the bull channel marked by the blue Gann angles .The red angle should define the bear trend.Lower highs pattern intact.
The triple top pattern that seemed to have formed on Monday did not hold,with a strong break through resistance.Yesterday was a doji and the market is facing further resistance from the ema,s and the 61.8% retracement.A lot of bears are capitulating but this still looks like a bear market rally........those looking for a "right shoulder" to form may be proved correct.The Russell2000 did not break the previous high,setting up negative divergence.Similarly in Europe there was negative divergence,with the Dax being strongest,
I was asked for a chart of the Sensei,but do not have data for that index.Here is the JF Indian investment trust.My best guess would be we finish a B wave soon (at around 0.618% of the first leg ?),then head down for a C. I have also added a chart from someone on the CIL I use,who is more of an expert on Elliott wave (www.apartofny.com - site has some excellent charts )
We got our reversal today,on the 34th day,with an inverted hammer,just below the retracement levels and the ema's.We should start to see followthrough on the downside from this setup.There was also divergence ,with some indexes not managing to make a higher high (eg Russell 2000) Forming a triple top below the 50% retracement is a strong bear setup under Gann rules.The triple top is not confirmed until we have a low below yesterdays low.