It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Sunday, 8 June 2014


"New highs in small caps, new highs in leverage, a reversal out of defensive sectors and assets, and/or repairs to volume and breadth would make me abandon that ‘best fit’ and conclude that the sun is not yet done with its speculation incitement. Whilst I can’t rule out a more definitive, crazy parabolic to erupt here, as has been typical at historic solar maxima, I just doubt it because of the lack of demographic support combined with the levels already reached in the likes of margin debt, rydex, valuations, investors intelligence and more. If a sharp terminal up-leg can actually occur from here on continued low volume, without the need for a stream of new buyers, then it would be a game of confidence in which the fear of losing out on stellar gains drives prices higher in a feedback loop despite participants knowing it is manic and unsustainable. If that were to occur then it would make the ultimate correction even bigger, but prior to that it would be a challenge to both bulls and bears: play the danger or suffer the drawdown. What seems clear though from history is that leverage would need to accompany such rises, and it appears that leverage already peaked out. However, there is a possible middle path, in which prices can eek out some more gains in June/July whilst not straying too far and honouring most of the above."

John Hampson

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