"What message was the market sending in 2015? To me, it was playing out an epic tug-of-war battle between the inflationary effects of the Fed's 'stimulus' machinery and the growing deflationary forces as reflected in falling commodity prices. This battle is entirely expected in an ending drama of a super-long bull market that really started after WWII when central banks started throwing their weight around.
Pundits are bullish – but I still think tech’s in a bubble
At this time of the year, the MSM is full of pundits prognosticating about 2016 – and I note that many are quite bullish on the global economy, and especially Europe. Most are even bullish on the US tech leaders, the famous FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), which buoyed the indexes last year.
But as a warning that the economy is not the stock market, recall that in the 1990s bubble, the 12 leading tech shares lead by Microsoft, Dell, Cisco and Intel, saw their valuation balloon from $900 billion to $4 trillion in the four years to the 2000 top. They then collapsed to less than $900 billion in the next decade – all the while their sales and revenues continued to grow! The tech economy was up, yet stocks went down. Let that be a lesson to investors and traders alike."
John Burford (MoneyWeek Trader)