Saturday, 31 December 2011
what the smart guys are buying
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/12/09/not-every-fund-manager-is-a-flop.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001
Happy New Year !
and thanks to all who have stopped by to read my blog and especially to those who have given feedback !
Have just been reading Martin Armstrong so not feeling terribly positive..........still,as the Buddhists say "No drop of snow ever falls in the wrong place" !
Have just been reading Martin Armstrong so not feeling terribly positive..........still,as the Buddhists say "No drop of snow ever falls in the wrong place" !
Friday, 30 December 2011
Thursday, 29 December 2011
Dow short-term signal triggered
I posted this chart this morning and today we got the reversal candle below the 3 dma.A simple enough signal with the virtue of being able to accomodate a very close stop.There is a triple top now in place and we are close enough to the Gann cycle cluster I posted earlier for this to materialise into a longer-term signal.Much will probably depend on developments in Europe,where the currency was very weak today (as was cable) From a Gann point of view we can look at 1225 (12250 here) which is the square of 35 and important on the square of nine,as the level where the market met resistance.From a TA pov we can also look at the 200 dma,both adding weight to the signal.
Wednesday, 28 December 2011
http://www.safehaven.com/article/23801/2012-offers-few-reasons-for-optimism?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+safehaven%2Fall-articles+%28Safehaven+-+Most+Recent+Articles%29
Gloomy but accurate (I believe) article from John Browne,some excerpts below
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Bretton Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes.
American and European Union politicians have shown utter paralysis in tackling intractable economic problems. Unwilling to make the tough decisions they all know should be enacted to avoid a looming global economic disaster, they have endlessly kicked the can down the road, while assuming that the road will go on forever. With an estimated $6 trillion plus solvency shortfall of the Eurozone banks and $16 trillion in U.S. public debt, it will take leadership of far greater caliber to avert a disaster. Such leadership is nowhere to be seen.
Unless major structural changes in fiscal policies are combined with sustained economic improvements, there is a significant likelihood that the euro will disintegrate in the coming years. As the world's second currency, its demise would herald unprecedented bank runs and financial chaos. Following an initial rise, the U.S. dollar may face widespread pressure as investors realize that the dollar too is built on a foundation of sand. Although I continue to be amazed by the ability of bankers and politicians to delay this day of reckoning, I know instinctively that their power is finite.
Gloomy but accurate (I believe) article from John Browne,some excerpts below
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Bretton Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes.
American and European Union politicians have shown utter paralysis in tackling intractable economic problems. Unwilling to make the tough decisions they all know should be enacted to avoid a looming global economic disaster, they have endlessly kicked the can down the road, while assuming that the road will go on forever. With an estimated $6 trillion plus solvency shortfall of the Eurozone banks and $16 trillion in U.S. public debt, it will take leadership of far greater caliber to avert a disaster. Such leadership is nowhere to be seen.
Unless major structural changes in fiscal policies are combined with sustained economic improvements, there is a significant likelihood that the euro will disintegrate in the coming years. As the world's second currency, its demise would herald unprecedented bank runs and financial chaos. Following an initial rise, the U.S. dollar may face widespread pressure as investors realize that the dollar too is built on a foundation of sand. Although I continue to be amazed by the ability of bankers and politicians to delay this day of reckoning, I know instinctively that their power is finite.
Tuesday, 27 December 2011
Tim Price :
QE is a Ponzi scheme designed to please one powerful constituency – the City of London. David Stockman was director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration. He was a key member of Ronald Reagan’s financial team. Here is what he said recently about quantitative easing, as practised in the US and the UK:
“These [QE] programmes… are simply designed to… keep the stock indexes going up, [in the hope that] somehow that will fool the people into thinking they are wealthier and they will spend money. The people aren’t buying that. Main Street is not stupid enough to believe that engineered rallies as a result of QE stimulus are making them wealthier and so they should go out and buy another Coach bag. This is really crazy stuff... I think the Fed is injecting high grade monetary heroin into the financial system of the world, and one of these days it is going to kill the patient.”
I agree with him. And I believe that QE is dangerous for a number of other reasons:
QE is a Ponzi scheme designed to please one powerful constituency – the City of London. David Stockman was director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration. He was a key member of Ronald Reagan’s financial team. Here is what he said recently about quantitative easing, as practised in the US and the UK:
“These [QE] programmes… are simply designed to… keep the stock indexes going up, [in the hope that] somehow that will fool the people into thinking they are wealthier and they will spend money. The people aren’t buying that. Main Street is not stupid enough to believe that engineered rallies as a result of QE stimulus are making them wealthier and so they should go out and buy another Coach bag. This is really crazy stuff... I think the Fed is injecting high grade monetary heroin into the financial system of the world, and one of these days it is going to kill the patient.”
I agree with him. And I believe that QE is dangerous for a number of other reasons:
- QE badly distorts capital markets, particularly those for government bonds, giving a false sense of market strength.
- It is inflating yet another asset bubble – what would be the third in just over a decade.
- It insidiously devalues the pound. So it destroys – not creates – wealth.
Coffee
The decline in coffee looks like a bullish wedge pattern.End of January may be a time to watch for low.
On the Gann fans chart coffee is firmly entrenched in a declining 1x1 channel and in weak position below the rising 1x8 angle.So I would anticipate weakness into the end of the month then watch to see if we can reverse
On the Gann fans chart coffee is firmly entrenched in a declining 1x1 channel and in weak position below the rising 1x8 angle.So I would anticipate weakness into the end of the month then watch to see if we can reverse
What would the Iron Lady do ?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203518404577096341880141300.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Monday, 26 December 2011
Charts from Ron Walker (thechartpatterntrader.com ).Ron points out in his video that last week's rally on light volume has turned the swing indicators like NYSI and BPI positive and that we could potentially push higher to the next resistance levels.However we also have a bearish rising wedge on the intraday charts so the market needs to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks.It does look as if a top is very near though.
Sunday, 25 December 2011
Saturday, 24 December 2011
Friday, 23 December 2011
Thursday, 22 December 2011
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