Ron Paul - Krugman debate

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/91691157/

The sideways chop in cocoa continues.I am still looking lower in cocoa and coffee although I note some are pointing out extreme bear sentiment and long term chart support in both markets,the patterns  still seem to indicate more downside

Cycles I am watching

The key cycle I am watching at the moment is  the 1 year from last May highs (the Osama bin Laden/Royal Wedding top !)  You can see this in many markets,whether cable or the Dow.Late October also gave a high ...this is 6 months (last week April-1st week May)so it is a reason to think that 12 months may also work.In addition the recent high in stock markets was 4 and 6 months off  lows and now we are testing that high so a failure on the 1 year cycle would be significant.Cycles are cycles and mean nothing unless price confirms.Ideally a big fat reversal candle this week.

Cable

Overbought at t/l resistance and cycles in play

PHSP

(silver etf in UK sterling)

Dow

Dax

this is the Dow futures chart... break of trendline,test of high....

Has BHP,the world's largest mining stock,just broken down from a bear flag ?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100016668/europe-faces-japan-syndrome-as-credit-demand-implodes/

 Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said there is no almost no historical precedent for the sort of deleveraging under way in the EMU periphery. Credit rose from 100pc of GDP to over 200pc in Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain in the EMU boom. "This is far higher than in Japan during the 1980s. It is hard to find an historical parallel or any insight from economic theory for where we are going," he said.

Dax swing chart

 

Soybeans

This one has run on a lot longer than I expected.A break below 1480 would be the first sign of a possible reversal

T-Theory cycle top ? (Also a 12 and 6 month Gann cycle )

 

Interesting Video from PSA on the Nasdaq,looking at gaps and some history

BRBY Double Top at 10 times the low

Banks (BKX)

I just noticed this Gann square on BKX.A top was made when time and price were equal at 18 points,180 degrees (ie 6 months) Lets see how meaningful a top this is

PRU weekly Gann fans

wow !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/robert-wenzels-david-speech-crushes-federal-reserves-goliath-dream

Pretty critical time and price resistance here for FTSE...lets see what happens next week

 

triangle in the FTSE ? 

Dax

s&p

30 minute chart from Ron Walker.For bears we need to turn down from around here...we have 3 tops in the 50% retracement zone

 

FOGL

Cable

Backtest.? 1 year cycle from high suggests a top possible.And "T" formation from October high.

DXY

Trendline support ....is the dollar going to rally ?

This chart is from SDMooks (Dino's CIL)

Nice hammer in SLV

looks like top may be in for cable,with the break of the rising wedge.It fell just shy of yesterdays fib target

 

3rd lower high setup ?

Ftse250 reversal confirmed

The evening star reversal was confirmed yesterday

PRU

Cable....another 90 points ?

Dow weekly Gann Lines

I marked the bull angle in blue,the bear angle in red.They are converging with horizontal resistance from last year's high,making the market look highly vulnerable here

Cocoa

the  charts look to be working well with today's sell-off...here is an attempt at a short-term wave count on the Dax :-)

SLV

Chart from Etx (Dino's CIL)

Dax

Pitchforks,Macd and  "3 bar reversals"

Gold

Dax

Arm

CAT

I am not sure why gold stocks are so weak but the charts are clearly on sell at the moment

 

Here is a nice chart from Darkest Knight

Dow weekly Gann Lines

Dow

Friday's candle was a bearish inverted hammer.We have a bearish DI cross and a possible lower high beneath a triple top.I believe the market is a sell but would cover on a close above 13100.Monday should be interesting and I would certainly be on the lookout for a big black candle in the next few days

Some cycles and Gann lines on the SPY.

Dax