Monday, 31 December 2012
simple crossover charts (cross looks imminent). Crossover signals have more validity when they accompany a pattern or a LH or HL setup,in my experience.Nothing magical about 19 and 38 except Ron Walker features them on one of his his public list charts and they seem to work quite well on the S&P.I like to watch 13 and 34 too
Sunday, 30 December 2012
Dollar index
Dollar index charts from P18 of Ron Walker's public list
and a correlation chart from HighRev
and a correlation chart from HighRev
Dax major ranges
The major ranges on this long term chart average around 1800.The current range is 1781,compared to 1778,the last major range in the previous bull market (2007) . Dec 27 was a 5 year cycle from the high,so the stars are aligned for a decent reversal,possible major top though it would be safer to wait for a decent weekly reversal candle for confirmation. The Dax is showing strength relative to US markets and seems more likely to be lagging than leading.
SPX Monthly
Will the market now stay below the declining 10 and 20 point per month angles ?
For January,support from the rising 20x1 from 1074 is at 1374. The 10x1 is at 1224,which is close to the 61.8% retracement (1074-1474) at 1227
here is the same chart,showing weekly bars.The angle notation still refers to monthly
The blue lines are Gann's "natural resistance levels" based on 360 - 720,1080 and 1440.
For January,support from the rising 20x1 from 1074 is at 1374. The 10x1 is at 1224,which is close to the 61.8% retracement (1074-1474) at 1227
here is the same chart,showing weekly bars.The angle notation still refers to monthly
The blue lines are Gann's "natural resistance levels" based on 360 - 720,1080 and 1440.
Decennial cycle
* The first year of a decade is the year to look for a bear campaign to end and
bull market to begin.
* The second year, is a year of a minor bull market or a bear market rally.
* Year three is the start of bear year, but the rally from the second year may run into March or April, or if the second year is a decline, the decline from the second year may run down and make bottom in February or March of the third year.
* Year four is to be a bear year, but it ends the bear cycles and lays the foundation for a bull year.
* Year five is the bull year, the year of ascension.
* Year six is a bull year in which the bull campaign which started in the fourth year usually ends in the fall.
* Year seven is a bear year (but note that 1927 was at the end of a 60 year cycle and that there was no decline).
* Year eight is a bull year. Prices start advancing in the seventh year and reach the 90th month of the decade in the eighth year. This is very positive and a good advance usually takes place in this year.
* The ninth year of the decade is the strongest of all bull years for bull markets. The final bull campaign culminates in this year after an extreme advance, and the prices start to decline. The bear market usually starts in September to November.
* Year ten is a bear year. A rally often runs until March or April, then a severe decline takes place until November or December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.
(from http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles-research-markets/gann.shtml )
and from the same source
" Square of 7, 49 is very important for change in trend." (49 weeks was the length of the final rally from 1074 to 1474)
* The second year, is a year of a minor bull market or a bear market rally.
* Year three is the start of bear year, but the rally from the second year may run into March or April, or if the second year is a decline, the decline from the second year may run down and make bottom in February or March of the third year.
* Year four is to be a bear year, but it ends the bear cycles and lays the foundation for a bull year.
* Year five is the bull year, the year of ascension.
* Year six is a bull year in which the bull campaign which started in the fourth year usually ends in the fall.
* Year seven is a bear year (but note that 1927 was at the end of a 60 year cycle and that there was no decline).
* Year eight is a bull year. Prices start advancing in the seventh year and reach the 90th month of the decade in the eighth year. This is very positive and a good advance usually takes place in this year.
* The ninth year of the decade is the strongest of all bull years for bull markets. The final bull campaign culminates in this year after an extreme advance, and the prices start to decline. The bear market usually starts in September to November.
* Year ten is a bear year. A rally often runs until March or April, then a severe decline takes place until November or December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.
(from http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles-research-markets/gann.shtml )
and from the same source
" Square of 7, 49 is very important for change in trend." (49 weeks was the length of the final rally from 1074 to 1474)
Saturday, 29 December 2012
SPX -last week's sell signal
this is the updated chart of last weekend's post with the sell setup which received confirmation this week by way of a large black candle with LL
Here is a longer-term chart which suggests the bull market cycle is finished and we have a first lower high in place (Gann's safest place to sell)
Here is a longer-term chart which suggests the bull market cycle is finished and we have a first lower high in place (Gann's safest place to sell)
SPX 2012 range
Recent price action is weak but the 1x1 needs to break for bears to get more confident.See how the recent high came 12 months after the yearly low
Rather than look at the calendar year I believe it is more constructive to look at the September to September year (natural seasons) and see it as a 360 point move from 1080 to 1440 with overshoot.
Rather than look at the calendar year I believe it is more constructive to look at the September to September year (natural seasons) and see it as a 360 point move from 1080 to 1440 with overshoot.
Yen
The yen has been in a super-weak trend against the dollar .We had a gravestone doji on Friday near a seasonal turn date so I am speculating a pullback or consolidation,perhaps a wave iv triangle here.Will watch end Jan as this was the major low for 2012
Sid's count http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/USD-JPY-daily-12-28-124.png
Sid's count http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/USD-JPY-daily-12-28-124.png
Friday, 28 December 2012
On the last trading day of the year,an appropriate and depressing thought from Tim Knight that has occurred to me more than once the last couple of years....but we battle on
"I pride myself on a preternatural ability to blast through charts at blinding speed and find meaningful patterns, support and resistance levels, breakouts, and breakdowns. It's one of the few things I'm seriously good at. But in this market, until our nitwit legislature pushes the farce that is the United States down to the next little milestone in our road to ruin, I have to wonder if the charts even matter anymore."
http://slopeofhope.com/2012/12/is-there-a-point.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Ftradeblogs%2Fthe_slope_of_hope_with_ti+%28Slope+of+Hope+with+Tim+Knight%29
"I pride myself on a preternatural ability to blast through charts at blinding speed and find meaningful patterns, support and resistance levels, breakouts, and breakdowns. It's one of the few things I'm seriously good at. But in this market, until our nitwit legislature pushes the farce that is the United States down to the next little milestone in our road to ruin, I have to wonder if the charts even matter anymore."
http://slopeofhope.com/2012/12/is-there-a-point.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Ftradeblogs%2Fthe_slope_of_hope_with_ti+%28Slope+of+Hope+with+Tim+Knight%29
Thursday, 27 December 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YFJVVvidK0 Dr Paul Craig Roberts on
US economy/budget deficit Fed manipulation of precious metals and stock
market ,hyperinflation etc
Paul Craig Roberts (born April 3, 1939) is an American economist and a columnist for Creators Syndicate. He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration earning fame as a co-founder of Reaganomics.[1] He is a former editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and Scripps Howard News Service who has testified before congressional committees on 30 occasions on issues of economic policy.
Roberts has written extensively that during the 21st century the Bush and Obama administrations have destroyed the US Constitution's protections of Americans' civil liberties, such as habeas corpus and due process in the name of "the war on terror." Roberts has been a critic of both Democratic and Republican administrations. Roberts has compared supporters of George W. Bush to "brownshirts with the same low intelligence and morals as Hitler's enthusiastic supporters." He has opposed the War on Drugs and the War on Terror stating it has "made widows and orphans of millions of Muslims". Roberts is a critic of Israel's policy toward Gaza "the world's largest concentration camp" populated by people who were "driven out of Palestine so that Israel could steal their land."
(Wikipedia)
Paul Craig Roberts (born April 3, 1939) is an American economist and a columnist for Creators Syndicate. He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration earning fame as a co-founder of Reaganomics.[1] He is a former editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and Scripps Howard News Service who has testified before congressional committees on 30 occasions on issues of economic policy.
Roberts has written extensively that during the 21st century the Bush and Obama administrations have destroyed the US Constitution's protections of Americans' civil liberties, such as habeas corpus and due process in the name of "the war on terror." Roberts has been a critic of both Democratic and Republican administrations. Roberts has compared supporters of George W. Bush to "brownshirts with the same low intelligence and morals as Hitler's enthusiastic supporters." He has opposed the War on Drugs and the War on Terror stating it has "made widows and orphans of millions of Muslims". Roberts is a critic of Israel's policy toward Gaza "the world's largest concentration camp" populated by people who were "driven out of Palestine so that Israel could steal their land."
(Wikipedia)
Ftse - Bearish shooting star 144 days from the low
we formed a bearish shooting star today and came within a few points of the measured move posted in Tuesday's chart https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEianyXmNt9Tsoy33oDuxZy_RFl2wXu72I9fQa1tV-Ai7RrdK7LU5YEjK3R9QHGbwF5iyohKpKO4R2g9ZJ4or4alSMjsnU17JrqEZZRHclrW9lKXdS01fK2jjJ3a2e05LtD-YfrrMcdrT456/s1600/ftse.jpg
we also got a Bollinger band pierce.In these manipulated markets the Bollinger band pierces seem to give quite good entry and exit signals,whereas the swing charts rarely seem to fulfill their potential :-)
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we also got a Bollinger band pierce.In these manipulated markets the Bollinger band pierces seem to give quite good entry and exit signals,whereas the swing charts rarely seem to fulfill their potential :-)
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Wednesday, 26 December 2012
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Ftse 393 pt ranges 144 days
We may be looking at a square of 144 trading days (12 squared) and 784 points (28 squared)
The measured move target is 6003 but resistance stretches from 50% of the 702 point range to 61.8% of that range. ie 5956 - 6038.The first time range is 73 days,which balances out 146 days from the low so clearly we are looking at 144 day cycle,divided into 2.
Tuesday, 25 December 2012
Ftse250
this is my preferred view,that we are finishing a 5th wave of the rising wedge but we need a reversal soon or the more bullish straightforward breakout option will gain credence
There is a Wolfe wave pattern on the daily chart,complete with negative divergence on macd between points 3 and 5.
There is a Wolfe wave pattern on the daily chart,complete with negative divergence on macd between points 3 and 5.
Monday, 24 December 2012
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Sunday, 23 December 2012
Kyle Bass
Must-see video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&list=UUvPpdXUKvHB7I1rjPYzPtPw&index=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&list=UUvPpdXUKvHB7I1rjPYzPtPw&index=1
Saturday, 22 December 2012
BKX
Has rallied back above the top of the square.I added a bull trendline (pll) and 1/16 horizontal resistance.Critical chart for the bear case ie we ned to reverse back into the square
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