Wednesday, 31 October 2012
Sunday, 28 October 2012
Ftse
The top chart is the Dec future.Not sure how to classify Friday's candle,a hanging man or a long-tailed spinning top ? Either way it seems there was some support at the lows and price closed near the highs.There is plenty of overhead resistance however and Tuesday's candle suggests aggressive sellers above.Also watch the battle with the 50 dma.Both the last runs up saw 7 day reversals,not a good sign
Saturday, 27 October 2012
Bkx
Looks set for a bounce,which I believe will fail,but important to watch.Three tops in the 50 area would set up a decent selling oppurtunity.If we break through it will probably try for 60,half the high Gann resistance for a secular downtrend.The Gann square chart I have been posting suggests it is too late and time has run out
Ftse swing chart
The swing chart shows a lower high. Both the last two swing tops are below the March high and failed to stay above the August high.Next indication for a trend change would be a close below 5738,the September low
If we bounce early next week we should find resistance in the 50-61.8% retracement zone 5840-5861.The August swing top at 5876 is also resistance
If we bounce early next week we should find resistance in the 50-61.8% retracement zone 5840-5861.The August swing top at 5876 is also resistance
A lot of people calling for a bounce here,with for example a possible Vix buy signal on the S&P and positive divergence on the NYMO (McLellan oscilator) European markets dont seem to have much room for a bounce though ?
Fridays FTSE candle was a doji and UK Bulls website is calling it a buy signal.I have my doubts given the overall picture,but IF we do,the 4 month cycle may offer a clue how it could turn out.The 3 and 4 month cycles are both supportive of a turn at the eom
Fridays FTSE candle was a doji and UK Bulls website is calling it a buy signal.I have my doubts given the overall picture,but IF we do,the 4 month cycle may offer a clue how it could turn out.The 3 and 4 month cycles are both supportive of a turn at the eom
Friday, 26 October 2012
Thursday, 25 October 2012
Wednesday, 24 October 2012
Tuesday, 23 October 2012
Jeff Cooper
http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2012/10/23/all-the-kings-horses-and/
" Speaking of cycles, we’ve mentioned the 100-year cycle often going into what we believed was a big turning point for late August-September with a culminating 100 year top on October 5.
From an October 5 pivot high, the market has started down with vigor.
¼ that 100 year cycle is 1987. ½ the 100 year cycle is the Cuban Missile Crisis.
¾ of the cycle is 1937, which was the high prior to the second leg down of the Great Depression bear market.
Approximately 100 years ago Teddy Roosevelt was shot as he was running for president.
Approximately 50 years before that, Lincoln was assassinated.
Approximately 50 years after that, Kennedy was shot.
So I would not give short shrift to the resolution of the possible force and furry of cycles exerting their downside influence. Since early October, we have been seeing evidence of this cyclic influence."
http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2012/10/23/all-the-kings-horses-and/
" Speaking of cycles, we’ve mentioned the 100-year cycle often going into what we believed was a big turning point for late August-September with a culminating 100 year top on October 5.
From an October 5 pivot high, the market has started down with vigor.
¼ that 100 year cycle is 1987. ½ the 100 year cycle is the Cuban Missile Crisis.
¾ of the cycle is 1937, which was the high prior to the second leg down of the Great Depression bear market.
Approximately 100 years ago Teddy Roosevelt was shot as he was running for president.
Approximately 50 years before that, Lincoln was assassinated.
Approximately 50 years after that, Kennedy was shot.
So I would not give short shrift to the resolution of the possible force and furry of cycles exerting their downside influence. Since early October, we have been seeing evidence of this cyclic influence."
Monday, 22 October 2012
Sunday, 21 October 2012
Wolfe waves?
A couple of attempts at Wolfe waves.I have only just found out what Wolfe waves are so have no idea whether I have drawn them right ! If I have,the theory is that weshould decline to the extended 1-4 line,as I understand it. Here is a video link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfdRXHMZjEE
and a link to Bill Wolfe's site
http://billwolfe.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/bearish-wolfe-wave-update.html#more
(thanks to Richard,from Daneric's to pointing me in this direction)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfdRXHMZjEE
and a link to Bill Wolfe's site
http://billwolfe.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/bearish-wolfe-wave-update.html#more
(thanks to Richard,from Daneric's to pointing me in this direction)
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