Bulls in the ascendant

A strong week with concern over Greece receding and better than expected US employment numbers.Apple has gapped up and broken clear of resistance.The FTSE100 has reached the Jan high as traders are also optimistic about the positive effect of the weak pound on earnings.I am not convinced that the bull market is resuming but if I am wrong we should see the Dax break out of this triangle (for a 5th wave and high in the summer ?)Failure would leave double top (or lower top) patterns.The next couple of weeks should be critical as to whether there is followthrough or whether we break back down below the 10 week moving average and the triangle....if this were to happen we would likely get a bearish dead cross of the 10 and 40 weeks.The 1 year cycle from the March low kicks in this week and resistance at the 50% retracement at 5880 are 2 reasons to remain cautious.Also the dominant trendline from the 2007 highs has not been broken yet.A look at a long-term chart will reveal how often the Dax makes important highs and lows in March.