Robin Griffiths interview

interview with Robin Griffiths one of the best technicians out there,with a wealth of experience

(interview from Wealth Manager website)

http://www.citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/robin-griffiths-downturn-could-continue-for-10-more-years/a504162?ref=wealth-manager-latest-news-list

Robin Griffiths: downturn could continue for 10 more years

by Kiran Moodley on Jun 29, 2011 at 00:01

Robin Griffiths, Cazenove Capital’s technical strategist, highlighted the gold market and rising importance of emerging markets, as he warned the current economic downturn in Europe and the US could continue for at least another decade.
The renowned chartist outlined that long-term economic cycles cannot be affected by human beings. Griffiths said: ‘Anything that is lower now than it was 10 years ago is in a secular downtrend.
‘There are no markets in the Western world that are not in a secular downtrend, and they have been since 2000. The average downtrend is 18 years and frequently longer than that.’
He concluded that Europe would not be out of this downtrend until 2018, and that only until 2022 can investors be bullish about the US, warning that it is facing a crisis in terms of an ageing population. ‘The oldest of the baby boomers is now retiring and they will be in retiring mode for a decade. Their consumption will slow, and consumption is a huge part of the economy. Approximately 90 million out of 300 million Americans are baby boomers. Only until 2022 can we be bullish about America.’
Against this backdrop, Griffiths stated that the steady decline of the Western world against the East is under way. When General Eisenhower was president, the US economy was roughly 60% of the global economy. The figure is now 24%. Griffiths said, ‘We are going to watch China become the largest economy on earth, probably by the end of this decade. Something like a decade later than that it will be overtaken by India.’ Griffiths also warned that the US would not just drop to third, but would drop below a possible ‘United States of Europe’.
Griffiths again affirmed his belief in the strength of the gold market, repeating his quote to CNBC back in January: ‘I think not owning gold is a form of insanity. It may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention.’
He believes that gold’s 10-year bull run will continue, as the Chinese see gold as ‘real’ money, and it has only fallen once in recent times, in 2008. Referring to those who cautiously quote Keynes on the value of gold, Griffiths said: ‘It doesn’t matter what some dead Western economist said
it matters what the Indians and the Chinese think. And in their culture, this is money.’ Griffiths did counter the growing influence of emerging markets believing Germany is still good for investment, dubbing it the ‘powerhouse of the Western world’. ‘If I did anything in Europe. I would go with the German blue chip. They make things the world wants to buy, even when it’s expensive.’