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It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford


Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin
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The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Friday, 26 August 2011

NDX 2168 ...time to sell ?

Well Bernanke's speech somewhat of a damp squib and feels like he may be saving his firepower for the likely seasonal weakness in September (and see link from Jesse's Cafe Americain posted earlier) We dont have a reversal signal yet but the Nasdaq is up against multiple resistance now at 2160-80 from the gap,the broken double bottom and Gann 100% From 1080.The risk to selling here is if they manage to gap it up on Monday but my feeling is that even if they do it will meet selling.We are also in the 4 month (Gann 120 degrees) time cycle from the April high now,which would be good for a reversal


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6 comments:

  1. Anonymous27 August 2011 at 16:25

    My thinking on Fed policy is that a NO QE3 stance would actually be bullish.

    On a monthly chart, the lower channel boundary on the DJIA may have only been pinned through (we’ll have to wait for the final print to definitively say so). If so, that could be a harbinger of things to come, namely, a target somewhere above the upper channel boundary.
    http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/5316/djia2608112.png

    This is what the DJIA looks like on a weekly basis.
    http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/2047/djia260811.png

    And here on a daily.
    http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3118/djia2608113.png

    Was that three attempts lower? I have it on a daily buy signal and an incipient weekly buy . . .


    In stage one of a bull market, all ships rise in a rising tide.

    Stage two of a bull market is much more a stock picker’s market.

    Is it time for the large cap blue chips to outperform the Russell 2000?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chartrambler27 August 2011 at 18:49

    High Highrev...I guess from a fundamental point of view there is a risk to bears from switching out of bonds into equities.I do think the nasdaq chart is bearish though and favour renewed selling soon

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous28 August 2011 at 07:38

    This is my bullish alternative on the NDX:
    http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5480/ndx260811.png

    With a possible double bottom on the daily, and like the DJIA, on a daily trend momentum buy.

    A couple more points on the DJIA setup: The DJIA trend momentum buy signal would have its first confirmation with a break above 11,400 and its second with a close above 11,530 with an initial target being the mid-channel. A break lower would begin with a break below the triangle formation (the opposite of the first confirm higher), and confirmation would be a trend momentum shift to negative along with a break below the huge horizontal support noted on the charts I posted above – support that coincides with the weekly 200sma and the monthly 50 and 100sma (lots of support – the monthly chart configuration has all the markings of a head fake, shakeout).

    Also, note that the USD is still in trouble, indicating in my mind that the market still clearly thinks there is still more need to price in the CURRENT excesses in the various geo-economic money supplies. STILL! I think that is what the charts are telling us. I think the USD is telling us that the cushion is out there, that it’s still largely unused, and that it’s very much available. I also think that the markets are setup to give us a big “sigh of relief” rally in response to learning that the “cushion” is not going to be expanded, at least in the short term.

    I’ve been saying for months now on ZH (based on the charts, but also on what the Fed has been saying) that I think that the Fed has the very clear intention of crushing commodities and supporting bonds and equities. Silver took it in the shorts a while back already. Gold’s day has come. Copper’s been under pressure since February. Crude under pressure, grains under pressure, etc., etc.

    And yet the USD still lingers?

    Is it possible to crush commodities, and support bonds and equities while the USD lingers (lingers is the key word here as a crash is certainly not implied) in a “managed” fashion? I think that’s the “equilibrium” the Fed seeks, and I think the charts are indicating that the probability is good that the Fed achieves its goal. Time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous28 August 2011 at 09:31

    http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2011/08/08262011-market-outlook-symmetrical.html

    Cobra is thinking pretty much the same setup short term with the exception that he's more objective (as I should be too) with regards to the possibility we see more selling.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Albertarocks28 August 2011 at 16:07

    Hey CR. I too favor more selling. I think all charts take a back seat right now to what's going on with LIBOR. I don't think anybody's subjective interpretation of 'wave counts' or pattern recognition makes a hill of beans of difference if liquidity is drying up. And it is drying up quickly. Note the inverse relationship between LIBOR and equities. It is undeniable.

    Longer view: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$LIBOR3&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p65441010230&a=230903218

    Closer view: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$LIBOR3&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p42380293195&a=230903218

    ReplyDelete
  6. Chartrambler28 August 2011 at 18:42

    Thanks AR,good to hear from you ! Thanks for the charts

    ReplyDelete

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