It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Sunday 29 November 2009

Dow Jones

The weekly Dow Jones also shows a Doji pattern and is poised below resistance from the 50% retracement level and the level where the second upleg equals the first.

The weekly swing chart shows the uptrend from the March lows to be still intact

Following the Dubai setback which hit markets on Thursday,the US weakened on re-opening for a shortened session on Friday.The weekly candlestick chart shows another doji formation,with a possible tweezer top pattern,warning of a correction.

Sunday 22 November 2009

On the daily chart we can see that it has broken the 2.5 point per day Gann angle
(the rise from the March low was supported on the 5 points per day line ie momentum had halved )
next support is the 1.25 point per day line

can also see declining momentum on the RSI and in the lack of spacing in the last 3 rallies ie corrections came back below the previous peak,which should not happen in a strong impulsive move

the rally fell just short of the 50% retracement of the entire bear market and topped on the 180 trading day count off the March low and approx 90 days off the July low,both important Gann cycles,being one quarter and one half of the major 360 cycle.Price was approx 1.25 x 360 ie a 450 point rally

normally we would expect seasonal strength into year end but the market looks vulnerable to a decline toward the 200 dma and 38% retracement level at around 940 unless it can regain the recent highs........???

if we were to bottom after 225 days,halving the 450 price range,we could get a low in early January
Interestingly the equivalent range on the Dax was 2299 points,which throws up 229 days as a possible cycle
Here is the S&P still probably the most important equity market even if the mask is slipping
This is a weekly candlestick chart with a simple trendline from the highs and the all important 50% retracement,of which Gann reputedly said you could make a fortune following this one indicator alone
...so the market is poised at very important level and we should take serious note of any early signs of reversal....so far we have a Doji candlestichk formation and the rolling over of the weekly MACD indicator but no actual reversal on the weekly chart

My first blog........never thought I'd do this,am no Stephen Fry but thought it might be a good vehicle to post and hopefully share chart ideas and musings on the markets.
Am definitely a closet Austrian as far as economics goes ...what goes around comes around ...no such thing as a free lunch etc....great fan of Gann and fibonacci ...time is the underappreciated element,everything is a circle and it goes around and round ....but its easy to get seduced by the exotica and we should never forget to KISS (keep it simple stupid) and to remember Livermore's advice that there is only one side of the market to be and that is the right side...lose your opinions or lose your money ! (easier said than done)