It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Thursday 30 September 2010

Gold posted a doji candle yesterday.Still think we could have a sharp correction,still very bullish longer term.

Wednesday 29 September 2010


The market feels like it is very close to a top but keeps levitating on Fed POMO injections and hopes of further QE.1158 is a possible target if  it breaks 1150.


This is the chart I posted at the weekend.On Monday we had a black candle (dark cloud cover pattern) and yesterday was a hanging man bearish candle.

Ftse Pitchfork chart

Tuesday 28 September 2010



Ftse Indices Macd crossing

Both Ftse indices are testing their long-term primary downtrends (not shown),as is the case with many global stockmarkets.Macd indicators are topping and suggesting these rallies are fading.

Monday 27 September 2010


An interesting price/time relationship here,plus two resistance levels on the square of 9 clustered together.

Sunday 26 September 2010


This is an update of the first coffee chart posted a few days ago

NYSE - 50% retracement level

Tagging the downtrend from the highs and major 50% retracement level in a complex head and shoulder pattern ? Right shoulder a "3 drives to a high pattern".The market could fall very sharply from this setup.

Saturday 25 September 2010


Another UK listed miner,but unlike Antofagasta,has not  made new highs.Examination of the swing chart shows how well this trended  in the last bear market,so one to watch once we get confirmation that the high may be in.The move from 960 to 1440 is a 50% gain (ie Gann resistance)


The high octane nasdaq stocks have led this rally as fund managers chase performance for the end of the quarter.This rally looks similar to the rally that preceded the April top ie very few pullbacks and lots of gaps,low volume.Healthy,"normal" rallies have pullbacks and resemble a stair-step pattern.These kind of rallies tend to be unsustainable and the gaps usually get filled.I have only highlighted the more obvious gaps.Even the Dow Jones is showing gaps.I believe this supports the case that we are close to making another top.There is Gann resistance at 50 as this is double the low at 25 in Nov 2008

Dow Jones resistance 10900

The Dow is tagging the long-term trendline from the highs and has pushed marginally above the 100x1 monthly angle (which is at 10698 this month).There is important resistance at 10890 (square of 9) and 10906.the 78.6% fib retracement.On the square of 9 or Gann wheel,961 is on the "south-east" corner and 1089 is one full revolution (ie 360 degrees) round the wheel,on the same corner.Numbers on this location have the property of being squares of odd numbers (31 and 33 squared).These aspects work best when allied with time and there is a 90 degree time cycle from the low coming in on October 3rd.Interestingly if we take one of Gann's numbers,36 and square that and add it to 9614 we get 10910.

Financials still look like the weak link in this market.Faz had a black candle yesterday but did not make a new low and momentum is still looking positive .Lets see if we can post a higher low next week.

Templeton emerging markets

Posted on this before,with the possible weekly triangle breakout but am leaning more toward this wave count which would suggest a correction soon.Resistance at 6.00 which is 3 times the low and 25% up from the 480 high

No cigar for the bears

This is the chart I posted yesterday.The bearish weekly candle did not materialise as Friday saw a strong rally,so another disappointment for the bears.Weak volume calls into question the bullish inverse head and shoulders breakout the bulls are claiming and it does look as if fund managers may be chasing performance for quarter end (eg see Apple chart) so this could end badly but the onus is still on the bears  to step up.


Possible blow-off top here with the gaps and shooting star weekly candle.This run has done 61.8% from the low at 760.We also did 100 points from the 240 low in 100 weeks,a perfect Gann square

Friday 24 September 2010


S&P - bears best chance yet


Dollar weakness is benefitting the euro even as credit spreads widen in the Euro area and has pushed above the 200 dma.A 45 week cycle kicks in next week and it may be that if the long-awaited stock-market correction has finally begun money will flow back into the dollar.

Thursday 23 September 2010

Autumnal Equinox

Good chart from Kimble Charting Solutions showing how many times markets turn on Gann's "natural time markers" the equinox and solstice dates.I have tried to show in earlier charts some of the other cycles that are kicking in around now,the Autumnal equinox,such as the square of the range on the S&P and the 21 week (fibonacci ) count from the high.Pattern reversals,such as the evening star reversal on the S&P that was confirmed today,have greater significance when they occur on cycle dates.
More strength in the Vix is also suggesting this reversal could develop into something significant.


gravestone doji forming on the monthly chart throwing the breakout into question,especially as the rally was a 90 point move in 90 weeks (appproximately) ie Gann square.


I drew this chart up last week since when we have crossed above the moving average.Macd has not turned but looks to be bottoming.

Wednesday 22 September 2010

Tuesday 21 September 2010


I still like gold long-term but am cautious short-term...rising wedge pattern,very extended against the 2oo dma.There is also a Gann cycle this week on the date of the equinox which might bring in a high

Pushing the limits

The bear squeeze continues...........Nasdaq has now recorded 9 consecutive up-days...volume is light,the economic background continues to deteriorate but the Fed continues to make vast amounts of liquidity available via POMO,(as described on Apartofny's blog      http://www.apartofny.com/2010/09/pomo-auctions/)         Very unusual activity on the FTSE,with a big engulfing hammer candle on Friday completely reversed mainly on the back of US market strength.I have underestimated the strength of these markets but continue to believe these rallies are unsustainable given the economic background.

Sunday 19 September 2010


S&P 5,13 mth ma crossovers

This is a simplistic tool that has given good signals



Templeton emerging markets

Emerging markets go from strength to strength.Wave 5 or breakout ?

Saturday 18 September 2010


pulled back toward the broken triangle support line and formed an inverted hammer or shooting star type bearish candle on Friday

OJ turning bullish ?



2 black candles since last week's post suggest a turn may be occurring at channel resistance