Wednesday 29 February 2012
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Understanding Greece
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2012/feb/22/greece-debt-relief-animation-video
A priceless rant !
Very funny anti-banker rant,posted by Ohuatrading,contains Anglo-Saxon expletives...
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/02/uk-taxi-driver-rant.html
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/02/uk-taxi-driver-rant.html
HSBC gap down below 10dma
This is the chart posted yesterday....I wasn't expecting the sell signal to be triggered quite so soon,but that is good because it suggests the 90 day cycle is valid !
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-oils-weigh-in-london-bp-bucks-trend-2012-02-27?link=MW_latest_news&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ftsetrading+%28FTSE%29
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-oils-weigh-in-london-bp-bucks-trend-2012-02-27?link=MW_latest_news&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ftsetrading+%28FTSE%29
Monday 27 February 2012
Ftse
FTSE broke the 3 day lows and 3dema crossed below 10dsma .Today is 90 days from low (Gann) and we ran up 900 pts (well 890 to be accurate) so we have sell signal with stop above todays high .More conservative would be wait till 5 mins before close.
(remember on Dow the relationship was 90 days/1800 pts )
(remember on Dow the relationship was 90 days/1800 pts )
Sunday 26 February 2012
March cycles
Some astro from Fibocycle from the mysquigglylines blogspot. http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.com/ He is pointing out the importance of March 11-15 as a cycle cluster.All good Gann students will also be watching the equinox date.
I would note that March 9th is 3 years from the low or 1080 degrees,an important Gann cycle.
"The projected date has a lot to do with the planetary aspects on Wednesday March 14th and the Mercury Stn Rx on the 12th. This time frame is also 360 cd from the Mar 16/11 low and 270 cd from the June 16/11 low. Over the next few weeks you will see that the market geometrics that I post will show several intersections and cycle frontiers coming together in this time frame."
I would note that March 9th is 3 years from the low or 1080 degrees,an important Gann cycle.
"The projected date has a lot to do with the planetary aspects on Wednesday March 14th and the Mercury Stn Rx on the 12th. This time frame is also 360 cd from the Mar 16/11 low and 270 cd from the June 16/11 low. Over the next few weeks you will see that the market geometrics that I post will show several intersections and cycle frontiers coming together in this time frame."
Dow 90 day cycle square with price
I mentioned the 90 day cycle from the Nov 25 low in my Ftse 250 chart but hadnt checked the price relationships for Gann symmetry.The Dow shows a possible Gann square at 1800 points plus 11200. It may be worth looking at other markets for confirmation.All this is saying is that IF we were to reverse in this time/price window there is greater validity from a Gann perspective and more likely for the turn to be significant.Usually you would expect a retracement to be a fraction of 1800 eg 450,600,900 etc,also true for time
Saturday 25 February 2012
Mispriced derivatives Risk
This could be the cause of a hyperinflationary policy error which I have been alluding to for the past several years. The policy error is not in the simple setting interest rates, but the Fed's failure to regulate the banking system and manage its risks. In this the Fed, particularly under Greenspan, was an abysmal failure, and improvement has not been forthcoming.
this is a quote from the post linked here
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/critical-mass-mispricing-of-derivatives.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29
Gold
needs to hold above the bearish 1x1 .Heading into a 6 month cycle from Sep high so bulls be on guard.I am not chasing gold here but shorting looks dangerous above the 1x1.
Second chart is a highly speculative pitchfork.The dollar is key for where gold goes next week I believe.
Gann numerologists - note it would not be a surprise to see gold fail at 1800 and silver at 36 !!
Looking at this weekly chart definitely pushes me toward the bearish camp.With a low around 920 the June contract should have difficulty pushing above 1840.I suspect 1800 may hold.
Friday 24 February 2012
Paint Job
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/attempt-to-inflate-financial-asset.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29
Thursday 23 February 2012
Silver
I have been umming and erring on the pm's recently.I was short gold got stopped on Monday and went long,then took profits yesterday.The weekly candles got me quite excited but we retraced to 61.8% from the 1928 high and on balance I am cautious here.I think we are about to see dollar up and risk off and that may hurt pm's.
Here is a short-term silver chart.I can also count that 5 on gold
Here is a short-term silver chart.I can also count that 5 on gold
"A gold standard without the flexibilty"
I love this quote from Hugh Hendry
As for Greece, the end game will be the Greeks rejecting austerity. The euro is nothing but a gold standard lacking flexibility, and all the onus is on private citizens to take the pain. Eventually, a Greek politician will say, 'Vote for me, and I'll get us out of this system.'
As for Greece, the end game will be the Greeks rejecting austerity. The euro is nothing but a gold standard lacking flexibility, and all the onus is on private citizens to take the pain. Eventually, a Greek politician will say, 'Vote for me, and I'll get us out of this system.'
Wednesday 22 February 2012
Russell and Trannies leading ?
The Dow Jones Transports and Russell seem to be showing weakness and the NYSE has backtested the neckline of a possible Head and Shoulders pattern.The Complete Coverage Report had some good observations and charts on this. http://thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com/2012/02/tell-all.html
Watching BPI
One of my personal favorite market breadth indicators is the bullish percentage index (BPI). It is a calculation that is applied to indexes (a group of stocks) rather than an individual stock. The bullish percentage index (BPI) is calculated by taking the total number of issues in an index that are generating buy signals on point & figure charts and dividing it by the total number of stocks in that particular index. Analyst John Murphy discusses the interpretation of the indicator in his book The Visual Investor: How To Spot Market Trends. Murphy's rules of interpretation for using the bullish percent index are simplistic; when the BPI is above 70%, the market is overbought, and conversely, when the indicator is below 30%, the market is oversold.
The BPI works well when plotted as a line with the five-period moving average (MA) or 10-period MA alongside it. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) can also be used. In this example we will use the S&P 500 as our underlying index beside an EMA.
The BPI of the Standard & Poor's 500 ($BPSPX) is plotted above as a line with the five-day EMA placed with it. The strategy here is simple: Sell the market when the BPI crosses below the moving average, and buy when it crosses above the respective moving average. When the BPI crosses above or below the five-day EMA, it triggers the signal to buy or sell.
The BPI works well when plotted as a line with the five-period moving average (MA) or 10-period MA alongside it. Exponential moving averages (EMAs) can also be used. In this example we will use the S&P 500 as our underlying index beside an EMA.
The BPI of the Standard & Poor's 500 ($BPSPX) is plotted above as a line with the five-day EMA placed with it. The strategy here is simple: Sell the market when the BPI crosses below the moving average, and buy when it crosses above the respective moving average. When the BPI crosses above or below the five-day EMA, it triggers the signal to buy or sell.
(From Ron Walker's public list)
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