It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Thursday 28 February 2013


Just an observation....the target from the Tubbs projection (adding first price range to the high) comes in around 14000, which is 3600 points (approx) from the low)


The correction scenario doesnt allow for much more upside


interesting the breakout wasn't sustained
50% retracement ? 


It makes me laugh when people say the markets are random. Here is the Gold Bugs index. I have run a Murrey Math square using 500 and 375,starting at the solstice and finishing at the equinox 6 months later


Doc Barter also thinks gold miners looking overdone on the downside (see GDXJ post yesterday)


Wednesday 27 February 2013


a possible taget for US March cocoa based on gann emblem and square of 9

Mark O'Byrne

Gold in USD

 Jim Grant, astute monetary economist and respected author of the Interest
Rate Observer said in a Bloomberg interview overnight that the dollar
would crash and a new Gold Standard would be the end result of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s irresponsibilities.
Although the interviewer
said that Grant’s remarks were inflammatory Grant said that it is
important to examine our monetary affairs over the sweep of time.
100 years ago the U.S. Fed was founded and in 1944 at Bretton Woods
they decided there would be no more Gold Standard but rather a U.S.
dollar that was backed by gold. If you fast forward to the present we
now have a full blown PhD standard where the former heads of Economic
Departments are running federal institutions. Central Banks across the
world are waging an all out struggle against the price mechanism which
is going against Adam Smith’s invisible hand.”
A guest host said
that no one in academia is calling for a Gold Standard and suggested it
would result in a deflationary period for the U.S.
disagreed and said that the Gold Standard is the only answer as it was
monetary system good practice for the 100 years ending in 1914, whereas
everything else since has been a “try out”.
Grant says that he
expects more quantitative easing from the U. S. Fed, and likens their
single mindedness to a doctor prescribing to a patient that is clearly
He notes, credit in the world is an infinite sum
of numerous simultaneous equations. He notes that if humans knew how to
allocate credit than the USSR would have been a success. Socialists
unions over manipulating credit don’t work.
Therefore, just as
central banks are continually try to print their way out of our current
global debt crisis their manipulation is not working.
bears need to be aware of this possibility (chart by PermabearDoomster) However even if this the correct count wave 4 is likely not done yet and BPI still on sell

some kind of bearish expanding triangle with an island reversal (or "abandoned baby")

NDX with some solstice and equinox dates and square of 144 levels


Maybe one more dip to 15 ? Looks very close to  an exhaustion low.Watch for cross on weekly macd which has positive divergence.The last high was on the solstice,say no more...




Tuesday 26 February 2013


I am thinking a decline to 6005 or 5915 areas around March 13 looks possible

TLT wedge break ?

Macd is crossing too


Ftse corrective waves with an ending diagonal ?


Yesterday started off strong and reversed violently,leaving a shooting star candle,184 trading days from the low.This looks close enough to 1800 points,180 days to me

starting a new count from 180....



Risk Off for now


big engulfing candle (in many indexes) in a day that started quite strong in Europe....likely confirming last week's high


3 drives to a high ? Fell short of a measured move by 33 points...Gann again - 2 moves of 1200 points ( 1198 and 1165)

Monday 25 February 2013


2 active Gann squares..also from Lunasyko today (posted on Dino's blog) 'coincidence that market started the decline @ 1005* from MAY 6th 2010?? ... 2day = 1010* from MAY 6th 2010...master 12 GANN is 1008* (144 x 7)'

Ndx 60 min

Ron Walker's 60 min chart with 50,200 ma....if we get a bear cross it will likely be in this index first


excerpt :

In his book Princes of the Yen (2003),Werner maintains that in the 1990s, the BOJ consistently foiled government attempts at creating a recovery. As summarized in a review of the book:

The post-war disappearance of the military triggered a power struggle between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan for control over the economy. While the Ministry strove to maintain the controlled economic system that created Japan’s post-war economic miracle, the central bank plotted to break free from the Ministry by reverting to the free markets of the 1920s.
. . . They reckoned that the wartime economic system and the vast legal powers of the Ministry of Finance could only be overthrown if there was a large crisis – one that would be blamed on the ministry. While observers assumed that all policy-makers have been trying their best to kick-start Japan’s economy over the past decade, the surprising truth is that one key institution did not try hard at all.

[T]hose central bankers who were in charge of the policies that prolonged the recession were the very same people who were responsible for the creation of the bubble. . . . [They] ordered the banks to expand their lending aggressively during the 1980s. In 1989, [they] suddenly tightened their credit controls, thus bringing down the house of cards that they had built up before. . . .
With banks paralysed by bad debts, the central bank held the key to a recovery: only it could step in and create more credit. It failed to do so, and hence the recession continued for years. Thanks to the long recession, the Ministry of Finance was broken up and lost its powers. The Bank of Japan became independent and its power has now become legal.
a good post on gold from Doc Barter,showing key levels



As bearish as I feel on Europe right now we have to respect the fact that the Dax has not yet broken support
The Murrey math levels 5000,6250 and 7500 have been significant support and resistance MA's are bearish but we could still be in a bull flag.Should be clearer by end of week

chart from Kimble

Sunday 24 February 2013

http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-feb-22-2013   Breadth

some nice music (no I'm not Scottish)


Weekly swings - next support 360 ?

Aud bear flag ?


an interesting post on Cocoa,which I posted on last week



a great set of long-term charts from High Rev


Saturday 23 February 2013

both cable and euro look to be headed lower

Ron Walker's swing indicators


Beans Reversal day


Friday 22 February 2013


Cocoa looking wedgy

ED chart by Thomas Bulkowski  http://www.thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html