It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Monday 31 May 2010

Aud update

We got the acceleration off the 3rd top ! (see earlier chart 11/05)

1,2 i,ii count

On the Dax post I showed a chart with a possible 1,2 i,ii Elliott wave count.This can also be applied to other indexes like the S&P ,though with the markets closed today the 13th trading day will come in 1 day later.Fib counts do not have to be exact and a valid turn could come on 12 or 14 days.The count implies a iii of 3 down,which would be a sharp fall as 3rd waves are the most dynamic,so a 3rd wave of 2 degrees would be particularly strong.This is not a forecast but is something to consider if the market turns on this timeframe.



Friday 28 May 2010

Wednesday 26 May 2010


Finding temporary support on the rising 25 point per week angle but resistance from the fast 100x1 down line.Looks like we may have a short period of consolidation before we break down below the 2 previous swing lows.

Ftse - broken support

Sunday 23 May 2010

Billiton....leading the way ?


island reversal ? Definitely a warning sign

TZA (geared short etf on Russell2000)

Like FAZ,a bearish candle on Friday.Will it try and fill the gap?Moving average trio moving into bullish alignment.Higher lows on the swing chart.

Faz -(short-term?) reversal

On Friday Faz shot up to the 5/8 line and reversed to close below 50% in a bearish engulfing candle,suggesting a few days of consolidation or correction at least.


ftse250 Triangle update

So far both legs of this presumed triangle have retrace 78.6% (fibonacci) of the previous leg.I have marked in the target if the D leg follows the same pattern.

Saturday 22 May 2010


S&P possible time cycles

T?his is a possible but purely speculative time cycle roadmap.A 3 month cycle is a "normal" cycle in Gann analysis,being 1/4 of a year.Such a scenario would also give us a nice 1 year low to low cycle.The arrows are pointing to time targets not price targets.The price range for the cycle is 350,implying we might bottom in 350 days rather than 360,or that price could bottom 10 points below the July 09 low,making it a 360 point range.


The market broke its 200 dma last week.This may lead to more selling next week.

Crude...trend change

Wednesday 19 May 2010



We got a good sell on this from the rising wedge and suggested profit-taking a little early.Now looks oversold with good support from 50% retracement,lower fork line and 200 dma.Bounce back to 25% retracement of the major range ?

Tuesday 18 May 2010


Another look at the FTSE

I have put 5,10 and 20 point per day Gann lines on the chart.Does not look to have much room to move to the upside.5400 (Gann 15x360) looks to be good resistance.As mentioned Ftse is ahead of other markets in the declining phase,Thursday's high being 20 days from the top.

Saturday 15 May 2010

s&p with 200 week mvg ave

One possible outcome is we churn beneath the 200 week moving average for a few more weeks or months.Bill McLaren thinks we will see choppy distribution period and points out the high came in at the mid-point of a 5 year cycle,suggesting a final low in 30 months time

flight to "safety" ?

Chart from Michael Eckhert's excellent site

Ftse leading the way ?

The Ftse seems to have been a good lead indicator for some other matkets (although some European markets have been even weaker).The moving average trio refers to the 10,20 and 50 day ema's.Ron Walker(thechartpatterntrader.com) uses these to generate must buy and must sell signals on crosses.You will never miss a major move with this strategy but you will be whipsawed in rangebound markets.I suspect we may bounce from the 5200 support area and trade sideways before the next leg down.Mining stocks and capital gains tax fears are 2 negatives for FTSE.


NYSE swing chart



Major support broken.See earlier posts on the 20/12 and15/01.....TA has done a good job in keeping you out of the euro.

Break of 3 fanlines,and 21ema crossed below 34 ema (see post of 12/05) strongly suggest the trend has changed.We now have a lower high on the charts,Gann's "safest place to sell".Definitely a time for caution and capital preservation given the state of the long-term charts and the disturbing parallels with the 1930s (Creditanstalt/Sovereign debt parallel)