It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Friday 30 November 2012


Nouf count Dax  for http://www.safehaven.com/article/27866/market-report-elliott-wave-analysis-of-the-dax#disqus_thread


I posted this chart a while ago saying I had an uneasy feeling it might want to do another matching range despite all the other bear setups I had noted.interesting it fits with Nouf's projections



Geometric chart of the dollar from Pete at Mysquigglylines


and dollar chart from Hoofhearted

here is one scenario but note price is above all 3 ema's

whoops ! annotation on 2nd cycle should be LH,not HH
on the monthly Ftse chart you can clearly see the importance of the Gann "circle" levels and how tough 6000 has been as resistance.7200 is the next big level if it ever breaks


well this scenario obviously didn't work but is my expected cycle low gonna be a high ?

Ftse long-term trendline

Well Im still pretty amazed that markets like the Dax and Ftse can break down from 9 week trading ranges and then miraculously rocket back up after only a week .On Wednesday lunchtime I had a LH (below the triple top) on Ftse and what looked like a great setup for a fast move down.A few hours later the US markets had shot higher,miraculously dragging Europe with them,all on "rumors" of better fiscal cliff negotiations and despite bad home sales numbers.This market has become a joke. However Ftse is right up against its long term trend resistance now,plus we are 6 months (Gann's 180 degrees ) from the Summer low so a reversal here is quite possible.Frankly Im pretty wary of calling for big moves down having experienced so many chart pattern failures and CB interventions over the last couple of years but equally I'm not confident calling big bull moves from here purely on money printing.Weekly macd doesnt seem supportive of a breakout but obviously you could expect a big move up if that trendline broke (and the disconnect between reality and the markets would get even more ridiculous than it already is)

There is a also a TAS pattern setup as we declined 11 weeks and rallied more than 22 without a new high.However that was actually triggered 2 weeks ago and we are rallying again so is it a failure or will we get a second bite at the cherry ?


Thursday 29 November 2012

(chart by SDMooks)

Jeff Cooper   http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2012/11/29/are-we-about-to-see/
Cloud resistance above



Nasdaq square based on 144 (high was 2x 144 (10) ). Watching the 6 month cycle from the June low

maybe we need to backtest the trendline ? I do believe this was a major trendline break and that the September high was the high for this cyclical bull

Wednesday 28 November 2012

Michael Ruppert interview - another interesting and disturbing video


Ftse square of range

The summer rally was 702 points and 70.2 degrees is approximately 71 days,which added to the high (Sep 14) gives last Saturday if Ive done my calcs right .The high so far for this correction was 5830 on Friday.So a reversal here could be significant and adds to power of the "lower high" setup in the earlier post.The first move down was 316 points. The run down last May was 413 points
I did some of these square of the range calcs retrospectively a couple of months ago (posted on blog) and they proved startlingly accurate so itwill be interesting to see if this one works.tomorrow is significant day also for those who follow ntaural cycles as it is a lunar eclipse day on Wednesday

Tuesday 27 November 2012

Ftse setup

triple top and lower high is a very bearish setup but the LH needs confirmation

swing chart
Obviously not relevant to a swing chart but worth watching for jeff Cooper (Gann) 7 day exhaustion/reversal (not just on Spx) - like we saw at the top on AAPL,gold at the highs last year etc

Monday 26 November 2012

Ftse retraced 70.7% and the ema's look bearish so we could retreat from here ,if not watch the 78.6%

this dollar chart from Sqwii  (http://sqwiitrader.com/weekend-outlook-for-26th-november-2012-bulls-comeback/ ) is probably key for the next week or two.If Sqwii is correct and the dollar declines the rally in equities will likely continue,especially given bullish seasonality

I was surprised by the extent of the rally,especially given the weekly candle breakout from a 9 week trading range on the Dax and the very bearish looking breakdown on Ftse,but we were oversold,with bearish sentiment and thin volumes due to Thanksgiving.I also think the extreme oversold position of Apple had a lot to do with it ,especially as we had hit the 525 target I was looking for

Sunday 25 November 2012

Not a new video but Ive only just seen it .I never was a conspiracy theorist but the evidence seems to be incontrovertible.Scary stuff



Thursday 22 November 2012

Dax rising wedge

A possible setup for a C wave ? resistance at the trendline and fib



Wednesday 21 November 2012

Chart by DarkestKnight

Tuesday 20 November 2012

Aud Wolfe Wave

Am still new toWolfe waves so not sure if its valid or not but would suggest a fast move down to the 1-4 trendline if it is



a bullish view on Topix (Peter Brandt)



Broke a 9 week trading range and broke 7200,2 times the low

The bearish weekly 2x1 angle is at 1414 this week,1404 next week.We had a strong move yesterday off Fridays hammer .AAPL hit my 525 target (actually hit 505 intraday) and rebounded strongly and is a key stock to monitor for this rally.Hard to fathom the gap down in the Vix. We have bullish seasonality coming up with Thanksgiving so bears need to be cautious about entering short too early unless you are prepared to use wide stops.Internals were very strong yesterday but my feeling is that this rally should end somewhere around 1395-1400

Monday 19 November 2012

Edward Griffin on the Fed


and Ron Paul's farewell speech. Imagine a world where the likes of Ron Paul and Nigel Farage had influence and politicians actually talked sense...



Gold has a possible bull setup here if we can confirm a higher low

Sunday 18 November 2012


Range expansion on the last 2 weekly bars looks ominous.1350 square of 144 support was evident on Friday

On the daily chart there was a bullish hammer on Friday so we may try and rally but there is resistance at 1370,May 2011 high and 1372.5 (square of 144) and from the 200 dma

On the "calendar day" angles chart (which leaves spaces for weekends and holidays) we bottomed on te 1x2 and on 61.8% retracement


Ftse is falling faster than last May,from a bigger distribution pattern. We have reached support at 360* on the Gann wheel (5625 area)  so could consolidate the oversold position but ugly


Appears to have formed a double top 100% up from the low

Saturday 17 November 2012

Thursday 15 November 2012

AAPL reached 525 today which was a target I had being 180 points down and a 25% move from the high.Will be interesting to see if it can rally from here. The daily candle is not a reversal candle. Chart from Ron Walker


(nearest future) Headed for 1325-30 ? 1330 was the head and shoulder target.1330 is 144 points on the cash chart



seems to be in a bull flag right at the midpoint line of the big range.Looks like it could rally into christmas but the 40 dma slope is a (minor ?) concern


The Dax broke the 1x1 line in the chart posted earlier and also broke down from resistance and the mvg aves in this chart.It is entirely possible we get a fast move down off the triple top into the eom time cycles,possibly around 6510-40 (fib retracement and 12.5% from the high) or even into the lower support band around 6200