It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Saturday 31 July 2010

Spain time counts

spx swing charts 50% levels

Interesting that these levels are so close and that they coincide with 100% time retracement this weekend !


Important time cycle

We have reached an important point in time where the "hope rally" from March 2009  is now equal to the 2007-9 collapse in terms of time........Gann's 100% of the previous range.and potentially a major time pivot.We have a double top at 50% of the range down,we have a death cross (50,200dma),we have broken the 1x1 calendar time angle from the low........so we MAY start to decline now.........economic data has been dreadful and will get worse but the Fed will do everything it can to try and support asset prices.........problems in Europe will likely  re-emerge sooner rather than later...(see  Spanish chart)

Tuesday 27 July 2010


Some people are turning bullish on commodities.Dennis Gartman cites the strength in copper and has turned bullish on equities.I believe copper has frmed a top and this is an ABC correction

I have been told that a B wave cannot be 5 waves unless its a triangle,so the overall count here is likely wrong if you take a purist view to EW .For practical prposes I am going to run with it while accepting the large B probably needs to be relabelled.

Ending diagonal ?

Chart from Binve

Saturday 24 July 2010


The Spanish market appears to have reached resistance.


The recent rally in stockmarkets has been disconcerting for the bears.Dollar weakness may have been a key factor in this rally.Here is an interesting chart from Humblestudent ( http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com)
suggesting it may be about to reverse



bullish candle on ftse following last weeks bearish inverted hammer,broken out of my pitchfork.....mining stocks (and BP)have helped ,I think they have formed right shoulder patterns,look as if they have exhausted but we shall see. On the "death cross" chart the Ftse can be seen to be backtesting the necline of the expanding wedge and the 200 dma.

My attempt at an Elliott wave count on SPX

I have stepped out of my comfort zone and attempted an EW count.I am sure it probably breaks some rules ,and have asked some the talented wave counters on the chatroom I use to point them out ! 
(chatroom or CIL on http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/   ...well worth a visit !)

targetting 656 if C=0.618X A 

I am happier with the "multiple large zig zags for several years" scenario (like the japanese experience) rather than superbear (or superbull scenarios) ie trading range 650 -1250 ? 

Ftse250 Pitchfork


Cocoa at last fell sharply under the bear setup we have been monotoring.Ironically this followed the supposedly bullish news that a London trader was trying to squeeze the market.

Under the ABC trade setup the 50% and 100% of previous range levels are potential targets and the various levels can be used for stop placement as the trade progresses.