It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Wednesday 31 October 2012


We tested and rejected 1420 resistance today and look to be consolidating before a move lower

Tuesday 30 October 2012

A possible wave count for the Dax ? W was about 328 points so Y could be expected to be equal or 1.618 times .

is this a Wolfe wave ?

Sunday 28 October 2012

SLW -  resistance here from measured move but may try for a double to 46, 6 month rally ? We pretty well nailed the low with the last measured move down


An ideal setup would be to spike early next week (Hurricane-related ?) into resistance ,maybe piercing the Bollinger band to complete what looks like a 5 wave C leg.Or possibly it has already topped.Murrey Math levels250 and 312.5 in operation so 314.5 next minor 1/8 resistance level


I am wondering if AAPL might test the 585 line and fill the gap from July,then attempt a retracement to the blue declining angle.Macd is looking oversold


The top chart is the Dec future.Not sure how to classify Friday's candle,a hanging man or a long-tailed spinning top ? Either way it seems there was some support at the lows and price closed near the highs.There is plenty of overhead resistance however and Tuesday's candle suggests aggressive sellers above.Also watch the battle with the 50 dma.Both the last runs up saw 7 day reversals,not a good sign

http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story.php?id=7070850  Mike Paulenoff.....gold low ?

Saturday 27 October 2012


Looks set for a bounce,which I believe will fail,but important to watch.Three tops in the 50 area would set up a decent selling oppurtunity.If we break through it will probably try for 60,half the high Gann resistance for a secular downtrend.The Gann square chart I have been posting suggests it is too late and time has run out

Ftse swing chart

The swing chart shows a lower high. Both the last two swing tops are below the March high and failed to stay above the August high.Next indication for a trend change would be a close below 5738,the September low
 If we bounce early next week we should find resistance in the 50-61.8% retracement zone 5840-5861.The August swing top at 5876 is also resistance


A lot of people calling for a bounce here,with for example a possible Vix buy signal on the S&P and positive divergence on the NYMO (McLellan oscilator) European markets dont seem to have much room for a bounce though ?

Fridays FTSE candle was a doji and UK Bulls website is calling it a buy signal.I have my doubts given the overall picture,but IF we do,the 4 month cycle may offer a clue how it could turn out.The 3 and 4 month cycles are both supportive of a turn at the eom

Friday 26 October 2012

can silver make a higher low here?

Wolfe wave update

Thursday 25 October 2012


Very close to giving a sell signal and confirmed False break pattern.I marked in a possible 6 month low-low-low cycle which would suggest a low in november (see Nasdaq square of 144 chart too)


From Keystone   http://thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.co.uk/

Dax future

The combination of 3 times the base and 1/8 and 1/4 the 2 lows caught the high with Germanic precision :-)

Ftse  (nearest future)


Trendline looks like it broke today

Wednesday 24 October 2012


Gary Savage's take on things



Tuesday 23 October 2012


Ftse double top

the Ftse's weak price action today seems to confirm a double top.Two tops 5932 and 5928 with intervening low pivot at 5739 so target price  5550


A clear move back into the old range.....not bullish

Three Peaks and Domed House Pattern

From  Barry Ritholtz    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/three-peaks-and-a-domed-house-2012-version/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I present for interest.I have no idea whether this is likely to play out.

Ron Walker

Broke the 50 dma after hours,headed for 200 dma ?

Jeff Cooper


" Speaking of cycles, we’ve mentioned the 100-year cycle often going into what we believed was a big turning point for late August-September with a culminating 100 year top on October 5.

From an October 5 pivot high, the market has started down with vigor.

¼ that 100 year cycle is 1987. ½ the 100 year cycle is the Cuban Missile Crisis.

¾ of the cycle is 1937, which was the high prior to the second leg down of the Great Depression bear market.

Approximately 100 years ago Teddy Roosevelt was shot as he was running for president.

Approximately 50 years before that, Lincoln was assassinated.

Approximately 50 years after that, Kennedy was shot.

So I would not give short shrift to the resolution of the possible force and furry of cycles exerting their downside influence. Since early October, we have been seeing evidence of this cyclic influence."
2 charts from Ron Walker


Another Wolfe wave pattern ?


Gold has 9 waves down now. 1705-10 may be good support

Monday 22 October 2012

Breakout looks for real at last ?

interesting post on the "debt jubilee" concept by john Rubino


Sunday 21 October 2012

Ftse wave count,chart by Joy Division,posted on Daneric's

Wolfe waves?

A couple of attempts at Wolfe waves.I have only just found out what Wolfe waves are so have no idea whether I have drawn them right ! If I have,the theory is that weshould decline to the extended 1-4 line,as I understand it. Here is a video link
and a link to Bill Wolfe's site

(thanks to Richard,from Daneric's to pointing me in this direction)

Conventional trendline support

see also QQQ's charts from San   http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/qqq-weekend-update.html

Nasdaq Square of 144

Nasdaq off the Nov low is 720 points in the square of 144 (multiply by 10) . 216 to 288 (2x144) So could we fall 16.66% 480 points to 2400 to a Nov 25 low to complete the yearly cycle (720 price/360 time)?


I still think these big miners have head and shoulder patterns