some kind of backtest in order ? (Ron Walker chart with my trendlines added)
Tuesday, 30 June 2015
http://moneyweek.com/interview-bernard-connolly-predicted-the-euro-crisis-62536/
The problem is France, which hasn’t got a current-account surplus and does have a “competitiveness problem”. Economically, it can’t live with the German block, but it is unlikely to end up leading a “rival Latin block” either. That’s why France is “so desperate to keep all the others in” and hang on to the myth that it holds some power within the union as it stands.
So it is really France that is working to hold the union together? “Yes,” says Connolly. But it can’t. “Who knows how long it takes”, but in the end the weaker members “have to go”. Would it help for the European Central Bank (ECB) to loosen monetary policy? “They have already done so to a considerable degree.” You can’t get Spain, Portugal, Greece, and “even France” into balance without “destroying their economies”, so in the end you have two choices: “you can recreate the bubble, or you have the transfer union”.
The problem is France, which hasn’t got a current-account surplus and does have a “competitiveness problem”. Economically, it can’t live with the German block, but it is unlikely to end up leading a “rival Latin block” either. That’s why France is “so desperate to keep all the others in” and hang on to the myth that it holds some power within the union as it stands.
So it is really France that is working to hold the union together? “Yes,” says Connolly. But it can’t. “Who knows how long it takes”, but in the end the weaker members “have to go”. Would it help for the European Central Bank (ECB) to loosen monetary policy? “They have already done so to a considerable degree.” You can’t get Spain, Portugal, Greece, and “even France” into balance without “destroying their economies”, so in the end you have two choices: “you can recreate the bubble, or you have the transfer union”.
Monday, 29 June 2015
some interesting Gann analysis from Jeff Cooper
"Caution is warranted because today is when the Gann Panic Window opens -- counting from the May 20th high.
This is a period of around 49 calendar days from high.
This is when the crash in 1929 began. Ditto 1987.
Many other waterfall declines of lesser magnitude followed this pattern.
There is an old saw that the market usually (not always) gives a graceful exit.
Our idealized cycle peak was April 27th.
I think the nominal new high into May 20th was likely that graceful exit."
"Caution is warranted because today is when the Gann Panic Window opens -- counting from the May 20th high.
This is a period of around 49 calendar days from high.
This is when the crash in 1929 began. Ditto 1987.
Many other waterfall declines of lesser magnitude followed this pattern.
There is an old saw that the market usually (not always) gives a graceful exit.
Our idealized cycle peak was April 27th.
I think the nominal new high into May 20th was likely that graceful exit."
Cocoa
I am awaiting an imminent reversal in NY cocoa,which might be the end of a B wave ina large ABC pattern. on the 2 hour chart we could be in a final ending diagonal
S&P
nice followthrough to last weeks evening star reversal
pattern....bizarrely we had a clear sell signal last week on the spx but not
really on the eurostoxx or Dax (daily charts I mean)
The next chhart is from Brad Gudgeon http://www.safehaven.com/article/38105/possible-panic-coming-in-stock-market
The next chhart is from Brad Gudgeon http://www.safehaven.com/article/38105/possible-panic-coming-in-stock-market
Martin Armstrong comments (June 29, 2015):
"[The Eurogroup] hates Yanis’ guts for he does understand far more
about the economy than anyone in Brussels. Any further discussions they
demand will be without him. [...] they do not want any member state to
EVER allow the people to vote on the Euro. Brussels has become a
DICTATORSHIP and is so arrogant without any just cause that they know
better than the people. We are watching the total collapse of Democracy
and the birth of a new era – Economic Totalitarianism from arrogant
people who are totally clueless beyond their own greed for power and
money."
Sunday, 28 June 2015
another good article on Greece from Jesse
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-european-union-greece-and-will-to.html
What are these people thinking? This is not a political and economic union. This is neo-colonialism.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-european-union-greece-and-will-to.html
This is no longer about the Greek debt. This is now about a small group
of technocrats dictating domestic policy, and alas,
enforced 'obedience' from a distant a central authority, using the power
of monetary rather than military control. It is painfully obvious.
So where are the economists? Where are the analysts who pretend
to authority on monetary matters, but who in fact blow with the wind
from one incompatible position and crackpot theory to another, wherever
their advantage may be?
Why are they not pointing out that monetary and public policy union over
a large and diverse geographic area without 'fiscal transfers' between
local economies, as exists in the US between the states for example, is
inherently unstable, if not barking mad?
You cannot have one distinct part of a region setting monetary and
fiscal policy to suit their own needs, and expect the rest of a
vast area with varying economic situations, demographics, and cycles to
dance to their indifferent tune. We know this.
This is not some theory. This is hard experience, and one of the great
issues of the 19th century in the US where New York Banks set monetary
policy and drove the economies of the rest of the nation, particularly
the agricultural areas of the West, into near rebellion through their
callous disregard.
Wednesday, 24 June 2015
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/update-to-us-war-manual-makes-it-easier-to-defend-killing-journalists.html
"Obama is known as particularly hostile towards informational awareness and the press, having persecuted more whistle-blowers than all previous presidents combined, and having carried out other actions such as classifying journalists as terrorists, having journalists imprisoned without trial, and aiding armed groups, such as the post-coup regime in Kiev, as they purge and murder journalists en masse."
"Obama is known as particularly hostile towards informational awareness and the press, having persecuted more whistle-blowers than all previous presidents combined, and having carried out other actions such as classifying journalists as terrorists, having journalists imprisoned without trial, and aiding armed groups, such as the post-coup regime in Kiev, as they purge and murder journalists en masse."
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts-it.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29
"But what people forget is that as it is now the EU is no longer about
money. It is all about power, and the gather of more power to a central
authority, and obedience. If it were about money, and bailing out
their Banks which has largely been done, it would be over already.
Greece is being made an example of for the benefit of the others. And
the liberal use of propaganda and financial terrorism, the stirring the
emotions of the people against the Greeks by portraying them falsely,
calls to mind, and may even be the prelude to the same sorts of crimes
that haunted the twentieth century. "
Dax
Dax at an interesting juncture...it could be we are in a wave 5 with higher levels ahead or we could turn lower from around here
S&P
update of chart posted last week....."solstice"is a typo :-)....should read "equinox". Watching for a possiblereversal signal in this time price zone
Doji evident yesterday on the candle chart
Doji evident yesterday on the candle chart
Tuesday, 23 June 2015
Monday, 22 June 2015
Dax - 2 hour candles -now has a HL (above the double bottom at Gann's
10800 level),we have bust the declining wedge and are above the
50,100,200 MAs
for Europe 2 very important levels I have if we continue rallying are 12500 Dax and 12000 Ibex
for Europe 2 very important levels I have if we continue rallying are 12500 Dax and 12000 Ibex
The sharply rising 200 dma was a warning not to get too bearish yet (contrast with flat 200 ma on the Ftse on previous post) At the weekend I was looking at this chart,thinking we might have a false break down below 10800 but this mornings action likely takes that off the table
Friday, 19 June 2015
Thursday, 18 June 2015
Wednesday, 17 June 2015
Tuesday, 16 June 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10213988/Never-mind-the-Czech-gold-the-Nazis-stole....html
The documents released by the Bank of England are revealing, both for what they show and what they omit. They are a window into a world of fearful deference to authority, the primacy of procedure over morality, a world where, for the bankers, the most important thing is to keep the channels of international finance open, no matter what the human cost. A world, in other words, not entirely different to today.
The documents released by the Bank of England are revealing, both for what they show and what they omit. They are a window into a world of fearful deference to authority, the primacy of procedure over morality, a world where, for the bankers, the most important thing is to keep the channels of international finance open, no matter what the human cost. A world, in other words, not entirely different to today.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/ukraine-and-the-apocalyptic-risk-of-propagandized-ignorance.html
"Remarkably, contrary to what we’ve all been told, Russia didn’t invade Ukraine any of the numerous times we were told that it had just done so. We’ve graduated from mythical weapons of mass destruction, through mythical threats to Libyan civilians, and false accusation of chemical weapons use in Syria, to false accusations of launching invasions that were never launched. The “evidence” of the invasion(s) was carefully left devoid of location or any verifiable detail, but has all been decidedly debunked anyway.
The downing of the MH17 airplane was blamed on Russia with no evidence. The U.S. has information on what happened but won’t release it. Russia released what it had, and the evidence, in agreement with eye-witnesses on the ground, and in agreement with an air-traffic controller at the time, is that the plane was shot down by one or more other planes. “Evidence” that Russia shot the plane down with a missile has been exposed as sloppy forgeries. The vapor trail that a missile would have left was reported by not a single witness.
Baldwin and Heartsong close with the case that U.S. actions have backfired, that in fact whether the people of the United States have any idea what is going on or not, the power brokers in Washington have Second Amendmented themselves in the foot. Sanctions against Russia have made Putin as popular at home as George W. Bush was after he’d managed to exist as president while planes were flown into the World Trade Center. The same sanctions have strengthened Russia by turning it toward its own production and toward alliances with non-Western nations. Ukraine has suffered, and Europe suffers from a cut-off of Russian gas, while Russia makes deals with Turkey, Iran, and China. Evicting a Russian base from Crimea seems more hopeless now than before this madness began. Russia is leading the way as more nations abandon the U.S. dollar. Retaliatory sanctions from Russia are hurting the West. Far from isolated, Russia is working with the BRICS nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other alliances. Far from impoverished, Russia is buying up gold while the U.S. sinks into debt and is increasingly viewed by the world as a rogue player, and resented by Europe for depriving Europe of Russian trade."
"Remarkably, contrary to what we’ve all been told, Russia didn’t invade Ukraine any of the numerous times we were told that it had just done so. We’ve graduated from mythical weapons of mass destruction, through mythical threats to Libyan civilians, and false accusation of chemical weapons use in Syria, to false accusations of launching invasions that were never launched. The “evidence” of the invasion(s) was carefully left devoid of location or any verifiable detail, but has all been decidedly debunked anyway.
The downing of the MH17 airplane was blamed on Russia with no evidence. The U.S. has information on what happened but won’t release it. Russia released what it had, and the evidence, in agreement with eye-witnesses on the ground, and in agreement with an air-traffic controller at the time, is that the plane was shot down by one or more other planes. “Evidence” that Russia shot the plane down with a missile has been exposed as sloppy forgeries. The vapor trail that a missile would have left was reported by not a single witness.
Baldwin and Heartsong close with the case that U.S. actions have backfired, that in fact whether the people of the United States have any idea what is going on or not, the power brokers in Washington have Second Amendmented themselves in the foot. Sanctions against Russia have made Putin as popular at home as George W. Bush was after he’d managed to exist as president while planes were flown into the World Trade Center. The same sanctions have strengthened Russia by turning it toward its own production and toward alliances with non-Western nations. Ukraine has suffered, and Europe suffers from a cut-off of Russian gas, while Russia makes deals with Turkey, Iran, and China. Evicting a Russian base from Crimea seems more hopeless now than before this madness began. Russia is leading the way as more nations abandon the U.S. dollar. Retaliatory sanctions from Russia are hurting the West. Far from isolated, Russia is working with the BRICS nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other alliances. Far from impoverished, Russia is buying up gold while the U.S. sinks into debt and is increasingly viewed by the world as a rogue player, and resented by Europe for depriving Europe of Russian trade."
Monday, 15 June 2015
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/08/is-this-why-u-s-treasuries-are-diving/
"Over the last few years, any illusions we might have nurtured that our financial markets are fair have been destroyed piece by piece by a relentless and consistent series of scandals: Libor rates, precious metals, stocks, commodities, foreign currencies…. They were all caught up in massive manipulation schemes.....
But there was one market that folks thought was somehow above this endless sea of manipulation, and so they have confidently placed their bets, including foreign governments, thinking – nay, deluding themselves into thinking – that this market was one of the last ones to be fair: the US Treasury market....
So how tempting would it be to manipulate this monster market? Very, apparently.
Turns out, the Department of Justice smells a rat in this until now pristine Treasury market, according to the New York Post:
"Over the last few years, any illusions we might have nurtured that our financial markets are fair have been destroyed piece by piece by a relentless and consistent series of scandals: Libor rates, precious metals, stocks, commodities, foreign currencies…. They were all caught up in massive manipulation schemes.....
But there was one market that folks thought was somehow above this endless sea of manipulation, and so they have confidently placed their bets, including foreign governments, thinking – nay, deluding themselves into thinking – that this market was one of the last ones to be fair: the US Treasury market....
So how tempting would it be to manipulate this monster market? Very, apparently.
Turns out, the Department of Justice smells a rat in this until now pristine Treasury market, according to the New York Post:
Justice lawyers, believed to be in the early stages of a probe, have reached out in recent months to at least three of the 22 banks that act as primary government debt dealers and requested information regarding auctions of Treasury debt, said one person close to one of the banks that received the request.
No single bank has become the focus of the probe, it is believed, and no bank has been accused of any wrongdoing. In addition, there is no guarantee that the requests for information will turn up any evidence of manipulating Treasury auctions.
A spokesman for the DOJ on Sunday declined comment on the matter."
http://www.stankovuniversallaw.com/2015/06/a-new-probability-alternative-for-the-upcoming-financial-crash/
"How exposed is Deutsche Bank?
The trouble for Deutsche Bank is that it’s conventional retail banking operations are not a significant profit center. To maintain margins, Deutsche Bank has been forced into riskier asset classes than it’s peers.
Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
With that kind of exposure, relatively small moves can precipitate catastrophic losses. Again, we must note that Greece just missed it’s payment to the IMF – and further defaults are most certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.
And if the dominos were not adequately stacked already, there is one final domino which perfects the setup.
Meet Tom Humphrey. He heads up Deutsche Bank’s Investment Banking operations on Wall Street.
He was also head of fixed income at Lehman."
"How exposed is Deutsche Bank?
The trouble for Deutsche Bank is that it’s conventional retail banking operations are not a significant profit center. To maintain margins, Deutsche Bank has been forced into riskier asset classes than it’s peers.
Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
With that kind of exposure, relatively small moves can precipitate catastrophic losses. Again, we must note that Greece just missed it’s payment to the IMF – and further defaults are most certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.
And if the dominos were not adequately stacked already, there is one final domino which perfects the setup.
Meet Tom Humphrey. He heads up Deutsche Bank’s Investment Banking operations on Wall Street.
He was also head of fixed income at Lehman."
Sunday, 14 June 2015
Ftse
we should breakout from circled consolidation area this week. i am expecting a downward break and a fast move down,but Ive been wrong before :-)
Saturday, 13 June 2015
Friday, 12 June 2015
Thursday, 11 June 2015
Wednesday, 10 June 2015
FTSE
I am looking for a decline to 6615 in the next few days then a bounce
look how well 3600 points from the bear market low caught the top !
here is a monthly chart
look how well 3600 points from the bear market low caught the top !
here is a monthly chart
Monday, 8 June 2015
SPX
the shooting star on Wednesday was a bearish headsup that the range of inside days would break to the downside....test of May low next ?
Saturday, 6 June 2015
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-06/hopeful-edward-snowden-says-balance-power-beginning-shift
Yet the balance of power is beginning to shift. We are witnessing the emergence of a post-terror generation, one that rejects a worldview defined by a singular tragedy. For the first time since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, we see the outline of a politics that turns away from reaction and fear in favor of resilience and reason. With each court victory, with every change in the law, we demonstrate facts are more convincing than fear. As a society, we rediscover that the value of a right is not in what it hides, but in what it protects."
Thursday, 4 June 2015
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq
The war on terror, that campaign without end launched 14 years ago by George Bush, is tying itself up in ever more grotesque contortions. On Monday the trial in London of a Swedish man, Bherlin Gildo, accused of terrorism in Syria, collapsed after it became clear British intelligence had been arming the same rebel groups the defendant was charged with supporting.
The prosecution abandoned the case, apparently to avoid embarrassing the intelligence services. The defence argued that going ahead withthe trial would have been an “affront to justice” when there was plenty of evidence the British state was itself providing “extensive support” to the armed Syrian opposition.
The war on terror, that campaign without end launched 14 years ago by George Bush, is tying itself up in ever more grotesque contortions. On Monday the trial in London of a Swedish man, Bherlin Gildo, accused of terrorism in Syria, collapsed after it became clear British intelligence had been arming the same rebel groups the defendant was charged with supporting.
The prosecution abandoned the case, apparently to avoid embarrassing the intelligence services. The defence argued that going ahead withthe trial would have been an “affront to justice” when there was plenty of evidence the British state was itself providing “extensive support” to the armed Syrian opposition.
Wednesday, 3 June 2015
Dax
Dax 2 hr chart with 50,100,200 crosses and neckline
back in March I said that 12100 might be important Gann resistance
There was a false break through this level and failure to hit 12500 (Murrey math level)
we now have a LH to sell against that and the 12000 resistance, Breaking this pivot would invalidate the sell setup
back in March I said that 12100 might be important Gann resistance
There was a false break through this level and failure to hit 12500 (Murrey math level)
we now have a LH to sell against that and the 12000 resistance, Breaking this pivot would invalidate the sell setup
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