It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford

Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin

The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Friday, 22 January 2010

Sell Signals

Yesterday's price action confirmed sell signals in most equity markets.Some,like the Dax had already shown their hand as discussed in the Dax post.On the Ftse chart shown,we have broken the low of the last 3 weeks with a big red bar (red signifying a close below the open, rather like a black candlestick) and break of the 5 week moving average.Markets have traced out "false break" patterns with the New Year rallies and in some cases broken out of the rising wedge patterns.The combination of fibonacci retracements in price and time seems to have stopped the Ftse in its tracks.The rally lasted 45 weeks,one eighth of 360 and an important Gann cycle(Gann called one of his books "45 years on Wall St." to illustrate the importance he attached to it as a number).The recent high (5600) is now a stop-loss level.On the Dow the wave count seems to be working and we now have an engulfing weekly candle.
The next question is how far we can expect markets to fall ? I would focus on 38% retracements (of the March to Jan range) and 200 day moving average support initially.

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