Sunday, 18 April 2010
Power of the first range
The rally from the March 2009 low has been difficult to analyse,with lots of overlapping waves,and for swing traders,several false sell signals.In Elliott parlance we have had a laboured corrective move (at least since the higher low in July 2009)
In this chart I have tried to show the power of the first range (1590 points)as a forecasting tool.6112 is 1590 pts measured from the first low (Jly 2009).100% and 50% of the first range are always important levels to watch. (6178 is 50% of this range as measured from the Feb 2010 low.) 6112 was a difficult target for the market to reach (in fact it fell short by 11 pts),not classic bull market behaviour.A strong bull market is characterised by higher lows and range expansion.We got a decent correction after the first attempt at 100% of the first range,but managed to post a higher low and have subsequently rallied above the 6112 level,in what looks like an exhaustive move.Not all European indexes have managed to managed to break the January high .
Thus the Dax is now sitting precariously above 2 important levels,6112 and 6178
Breaking these levels would suggest the trend may be reversing which would be confirmed by having a larger correction (ie range down) than previous corrections.717 pts is the largest correction so far.I have not mentioned time in this analysis,but time can also be brought into the equation.
Ideally this analysis should be done with the cash index rather than nearest future.