more from Keene Little  (see Capital Markets blog link)


 I was aware of this from reading Chris Carolan.Robin Griffiths also published a paper on it when head of technical analysis at HSBC


There are some cycle studies pointing to June 15 as the next turn window. In addition to the cycle studies we'll have a full moon on June 15th and at the same time we'll have a total lunar eclipse. A guy by the name of Steven Puetz, who made many stock market predictions in the past, had discussed the full moon/total lunar eclipse event as the setup for a potential market crash. He emphasized that this alone doesn't predict a market crash but he made note of past crashes happening around the same event. He postulated that it might cause a "rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia."

Puetz looked at 8 previous crashes starting from the Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Nikkei crash in 1990 and found they were lumped together near full moons that are also lunar eclipses. For this year that will be on June 15th and December 10th. He noted that once the panic starts it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower, waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.