S&P

well last week we said it was in a weak position below the 2x1 and in the event it only managed a 1 day c/t and is following the fast 8x1 line down.

 

 From Keene Little's excellent blog   : -

http://blog.capitalmarketvision.com/

 next Wednesday, June 15th, is a potentially important turn date. It's the next full moon and a total lunar eclipse on the same day. This event tends to see market turns (in commodities if not the stock market). Stock market crashes have also been associated with these lunar events. What we don't know is whether the date will be a low or a high (or of course whether or not it will even mark a turn date). I'm showing a bounce up to 1313 on that date and then rolling over and heading lower again.

Here's the important part -- If the market does not get the higher bounce from here into next week and instead breaks lower it could get ugly and fast. This has to do with the relatively small bounce today which leaves the market vulnerable to a very bearish 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside with very small 2nd wave bounces (23.6% retracements). It would indicate incredible weakness and would likely mean a disconnect to the downside (a market crash). The market is vulnerable this month to a crash and while it's usually folly to predict one I can't underestimate the potential for one here. Take a break below Wednesday's lows seriously and get out of long positions and get short for what could be a wild ride. Hopefully we'll instead get a nice bounce into next week and allow us to test it with a short entry at the top of the bounce instead of shorting in the hole.