This is a violent decline that is far from over imho.Look how swiftly it took out the 3 previous swing lows.The 9614 swing low is an obvious target ,as is the next rising gann line.So a test of 50% retracement (9672 )and probable overshoot is implied,maybe a spike and recovery but that is speculation obviously
Hi CR. How've you been? Your chart immediately made me think of a pattern I've noticed quite a few times in the past, but usually on smaller time scales. But it could just as easily occur on the weekly chart. I've noticed that in some cases, in a huge and swift move lower, a noticeable consolidation occurs right smack in the middle of the down move. For some reason, it occurs right in the middle of a strongly impulsive third wave. If ignored, then a beautiful 5 wave sequence can be counted. So that's what EW specialists seem to do... much after the fact, they suddenly ignore the relatively contained consolidation and never seem to address it any further. In real time though, it throws wave counters for a bit of a loop and understandably so. Here is an example I found. As you can see, this phenomenon can even occur on a daily time scale:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-04-12&en=2008-06-30&id=p79999463103&a=243555625
Based on that notion, if this current consolidation is occurring half way through the down move that began in July, then eventually the bottom of the total move lower would land squarely on your Gann line somewhere near 9700.
On a different topic... quite some time ago I'd read on Dino's blog that you were told that my sudden absence from Mike's CiL was "due to illness". That was a total fabrication and the person who told you that knew it was a fabrication. I'm as healthy as a race horse and Mike 'did not' inform that commenter that that was the reason I'd abandoned that site.
The real reason is that I have zero tolerance for arrogance and the person who told you that lie is the most arrogant rooster I've ever encountered in my life. You've had more than enough confrontations with him yourself. The fact is that he was too embarrassed to tell you the truth... that he'd spent a full 70 minutes one morning trashing one of my articles in an incredibly vain (and failed) effort to make himself look somehow superior. That'll be the day!
He would surely deny that accusation if confronted about it, but I have his entire 70 minute "critique" copied to a text document, replete with the list of songs he constantly plays as if to announce to the world "I'm here... I'm here". No, the fact is that as we were so often reminded, Mr. "I AM ONE OF THE FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THIS SITE" took it upon himself to drive off the one person who Mr. Eckert had asked to write for EW T & Charts. I guess that's what "founding members" do... drive off all the active members until he has reduced the contributorship to his satisfaction... 3 or 4 remaining persons who can 'just tolerate' his presence. The "big frog in the small pond" syndrome personified. He lied to you and I just had to set the record straight!
I hope you're doing well man... I always enjoyed your company.
Thanks AR - great shame you are not posting on Col's CIL,you will be a great loss but I know where you are coming from...life is too short,and markets too tough...you've got to enjoy it........egos.....sigh !!
ReplyDeleteHey AR;
ReplyDeleteFor my part I did not necessarily subscribe to the ratios because I have not come across the credible way to use them to trade either short or long term. You are very welcome to come to our free CIL and participate. Many members like matrix ; HD; rtz; and other would welcome you. Pl take this as an invitation and do visit us.
http://dinosetf.wordpress.com/free-cil/
Thanks for the invitation Dino. You 'will' recall however that you 'did' refer to my analysis of the ratio between AAPL and the NDX as "nonsense". I assure you, it was not nonsense. You also said "you can't trade ratios". Try telling that to currency traders, since all their trades "are" ratios. There are only one or two reason why a person would lash out like that and neither of them are good.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, I do appreciate your offer. The reality though is that both CiLs are frequented by good traders who have their own methods of analysis and trading styles. For the most part they're very set in their ways and the bottom line is that I really do not have anything to offer either CiL that would be perceived as useful or offering any value whatsoever. I really am not a good fit in either room.
But I do sincerely appreciate your kind offer. Continued success.